There is an enormous open short position in SpaceX now https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-15/short-sel...
The float is going to triple in several steps with 900M employee stocks getting added to 550M issued in the IPO.
The thesis that larger pool will depress prices even if all other things remain same is quite sound, just like a small float inflates the price .
These events are merely triggers / focal points as would the quarterly results next month and various unlocking dates .
the traders are savvy they are just looking at different things and using company news to focus the price actions on .
Valuations are not based on business models or financial performance for the highly visible public companies, that has always been the case since earliest days of the modern market .
it is just vibes or to put it differently a strong belief/faith discounting every risk . Without that faith TSLA won’t trade at 350 PE with middling growth no new products currently scheduled . SPCX at $2T+, even for an AI company a lot - it is larger than valuations of both market leaders combined while having <5% share/revenue .
Maybe the faith will prove justified or maybe not, either way the price moves by sentiment alone not any actual business logic
That is exactly what Musk was counting on. Reality is boring and no fun. People want promises, stars and dreams.
A dip because of a scrubbed launch is a blip on the radar compared to the catastrophically bad ideas Musk is promising to implement. Data centers in space? That's just lunacy. A ridiculous idea from a ridiculous man.
Might have something to do with Musk making outlandish promises (AI datacenters in space) and the fact that most of the company's value is tied up in xAI, the shittiest AI provider.