Trump teleprompter operator allegedly made Kalshi bets
cnbc.com
cnbc.com
The problem is not prediction markets , the problem is that people point to such bets and try to extrapolate a rule, which is like taking a scammy OTC pink sheet with a marketcap of 5 million USD and be surprised that it's shady and there is insider trading and shananigans.
Prediction markets without a single point of failure such as the ones on sports are very successful with billions of dollars in value exchanged and all is fine.
Regardless of the type of market if you put the destiny of millions of dollars in the hands of a single individual they'd manipulat that market
Crypto is shady precisely because these regulations are absent. Exchanges fleece their customers by front running trades. Price manipulation is rampant via wash trading, spoofing, pump and dumps, and so on.
Betting is heavily regulated everywhere because it attracts criminals with dirty money.
Prediction markets are very obviously a form of unregulated gambling. To the surprise of absolutely nobody, they are getting repeatedly scammed.
Tell me how people betting on the world cup winner on polymarket are getting scammed. They simply aren't because the outcome is dependant upon many many humans, who all want the same thing and no single individual can manipulate the outcome to their advantage
On the other hand the SEC , insider trading laws and KYC would protect you absolutely fuck all if you invest in a 5m marektcap pink sheet, because again that person can manipulate the market to their advantage, and I'd also say quite frankly that the SEC , insider trading laws and KYC are protecting you quite nothing against the market manipulation that people like Musk and Trump do to their advantage, because they fucking can as they are too big to jail and they take advantage of that , just like the 5M marketcap pink sheet guy who comes from the opposite side of the equation, he doesn't care about getting jailed.
So as you can see it's always about the single bet and its characteristics determining if you are getting taken advantage of or not, it's not about the form of market on which the bet is placed per se or if there are a bunch of do nothing 3 letter agencies presiding above it