This is shaped like more-or-less every IPO I've seen. I think you have to wait for more of a collapse to claim dispositive evidence of a scam (or widen your claim to 'almost all IPOs are scams').
Very few IPOs changed the rules to allow themselves to be incuded in significant indexes far faster than the rules previously allowed, and then slipped below their initial offering.
There's also the Tesla (potential) self dealing where SpaceX bought a bunch of Cybertrucks and appears to be leasing them to employees for cheap as a perk.
What do you think will happen to SpaceX share prices when roughly 18x the number of shares at IPO are released?
From a company that only made $18bn in sales last year and lost $5bn. For reference, Aramark, a company basically nobody has heard of made as much money and even turned a $0.5bn profit.
SpaceX shouldn't be worth more than $30 in 1 year's time.
Of course, irrationality can be an extremely strong force, so let's see.
https://companiesmarketcap.com/largest-companies-by-revenue/...
You've just told me that "the financials of an incompetent commercial food service provider" are better than those of SpaceX.
Aramark is profitable and SpaceX is wildly unprofitable[1] :-)))
* * *
[1] Almost nothing SpaceX does points at SpaceX scaling to huge profitability. The rocket business is super capital intensive and losing money. And its biggest customer by far is Starlink. Starlink is profitable, but even so, if Starlink hiccups, SpaceX rocketry goes kaput. Oh, the second biggest customer is the US government, and you only need one hostile US administration for that business to go away. xAI is a 2-bit player in the AI space and it's losing money hand over fist.
Yes but TSLA will be self-driving in Mars soon and therefore.... profit!
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/what-happens-to-ipos-over-th...
Not even remotely. Many startups IPO with no profit (though not all), but there is nearly always a credible business plan and a semi-rational valuation.
None of this is the case for spcx. They claim their TAM is about the size of the entire GPD of the USA and that they'll soon have 1T/yr in profits. All based on... nothing. The numbers are wildly unrealistic by a multiple never before seen. Oh and full self driving will be here before end of this year, trust them.
Can you name even one example in the last 50 years?
That said, I'm also not sure how accurate that is.
I was responding to the person pointing to this as confirmation of the long-running social-media-populist narrative surrounding this IPO. I consider that confirmation bias. I was not responding to the narrative itself, on which my only positions are: a prior against social media populism, a prior towards our financial institutions, a prior against trusting Musk, and a prior against trusting our current governance.
In a world where retail basically has no access to true IPO pricing, I don't think this is untrue for the majority of investors.
Jamming SpaceX directly into a bunch of indexes just because Musk wanted it (and everyone is a coward or complicit) stunk of "scam" in a very different way, though.