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Comment by andrekandre | Hacker News Reader

  > Datacenters are willing to pay $50k for a single high end GPU.

its true for now, because capital is flowing like a torrent, but how long will that last if returns start to be expected (aka the bubble pops)?

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Even if the bubble pops and anthropic and openai et al implode - genie doesn’t go back in the bottle. The usefulness of LLMs for coding is proven, and a chip in a datacenter running 24/7 is always going to be more valuable than in a personal device running occasionally.

That doesn’t change until production capacity exceeds the datacenter demand. When that happens, they’ll start selling them down the market until it eventually reaches phones and toasters and whatever. But not in two years.

LLMs for coding is too small of a benefit to justify this investment, the bubble is indeed going to burst. Genie is already on its way back into the bottle.

I agree it’s too small a benefit to justify the investment, and I agree the bubble will pop. I just don’t think that means hardware prices become sane again for quite a while. I think if you half the price of a server GPU because demand from the big ai companies drops out, we’ll still have a shortage - it’ll just being going into commodity data centers to run open weight models.

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