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Comment by redwood | Hacker News Reader

I've seen other reports that suggest the level of investment for eclipses the internet buid out in 2000 and the railroad boom more than a century earlier. I wonder if they use different ways of landing on these wildly different assessments

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Yes. In inflation adjusted dollars spending on AI dwarfs previous "megaprojects". But as a fraction of GDP it's fairly modest -- comparable to the Apollo Project.

It's a sign of how much the economy has grown that under "1% of GDP for a few years" now is far bigger than "over 10% of GDP for a few decades" was in the late 1800s.

You seem to be implying that railway spending was "over 10% of GDP for a few decades" in the late 1800s. If yes then can you trace that back to a methodology? I tried and found much lower numbers, around 3% average over the peak decade.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44805979

Your estimate of current AI spending is also low. Hyperscaler capex alone is around 2% of US GDP, not including other costs (neoclouds, employee comp, etc.).

You're right, I was remembering the peak and duration of the railway boom but of course it wasn't at the peak for the entire duration.

Manhattan Project: $36B, 5 years

▫ Apollo Program: $257B, 14 years

▫ Interstate Highway System: $620B, 37 years

▫ AI data centers: $930B, 6 years and still accelerating

From: https://substack.com/@rubendominguez/note/c-244929068

That AI number is a gross underestimate. It’s nearly that for this year alone. Wildly off.

Amazing if inflation adjusted as the chart claims and if the other article is true... it suggests that GDP growth has eclipsed inflation. EDIT that GDP Road is reported was inflation baked in other words 0% GDP growth would include inflation so as long as the GDP is growing this phenomenon exists

this time its free printed fiat debt tho, not fully comparable. If market crashes, they will print even few times more again

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