I think you're right, and I think this principle of friction-is-good-actually applies to a lot more domains than just software, but whether the world will ever accept that is a different question.
1. Same services provided using similar software stack, but maintained by fewer developers. I suspect this may hold for some sectors in the economy. Or
2. The Jevons case: similar # of developers maintaining a much bigger software stack that provides more services.
I might add:
2a: Similar but with lots of accidental complexity everywhere.
Probably we're heading towards some mix of the above? Depending on which application area you're talking about. Web dev is a lost cause, deeply-embedded won't see a big shake-up.
"If one teenager works hard and saves for a few years to buy themselves a car and another has theirs bought for them on a whim, who would appreciate their car more?"
Odds are it's the former, not always. But mostly.