I think Binface is going to smash his own records and get to like 20%. Farage will get enough that Farage is going to claim the result as a decisive victory while at the same time the result is actually deeply embarrassing for Farage.
He wouldn't get away with his headgear in the commons but top hats are permitted (at least when not speaking) so he has some room for manoeuvre.
There's just no way to claim that as a decisive victory with a straight face. It'll always come with the caveat "... against a bin" - which means Farage has already lost.