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Comment by Beijinger | Hacker News Reader

Ukraine is not winning. This is a distorted view in the west, and I am not Russian. Just a few more billions and Russia will collapse.

Russia is not fighting Ukraine, Russia is fighting NATO. And we are in dangerous territory.

Emmanuell Todd predicted this and this is not a person to be taken lightly (e.g. predicting the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1976 as a 26 years old PhD student): https://americanaffairsjournal.org/2024/11/how-the-west-was-...

We need just a few more sanctions against Russia and we will have a Regime change. The regime change will come, but likely different than we thought - AfD in Germany, Farange in the UK and LePen in France.

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Russia is not entitled to swallow any neighbour that looks at them funny. Neither are we required to stand by and do nothing for the fear of the possibility that Russia will become more belligerent.

Russia thought the Ukrainians wouldn't put up much resistance and launched a war of conquest to prevent Ukraine from joining the EU. It's failed in it's gamble and it has to experience the consequences.

Russia often reforms only after military defeat exposes how badly the state and army are failing: Crimea pushed the Great Reforms, Japan helped trigger 1905, and Afghanistan plus the Cold War strain fed the Soviet collapse. Loss forces changes that peace lets the system avoid. And maybe we'll get a conciliatory government not an aggressive one doubling down.

I am sure the US would have been very happy if Mexico would have joined the Soviet Union. Wasn't there something with Cuba?

This year, so far and among other things, we’ve had an illegal war against Iran, an illegal blockade against Cuba, hundreds of civilians murdered in the Caribbean, the murder of a head of state, the abduction of another. As well as the continued support for Zionist genociding. No meaningful protest from Western regimes, Western media, and most of the enthusiasts here. Might makes right is the whole of the law—as long as it’s the West‘s.

Joining the EU doesn't usually involve the mass murder and/or incarceration of a whole class of people. Joining the EU brings obvious prosperity while the Soviet Union locks you in to a government structure doomed to economic failure.

Yeah there was something with Cuba. America attempted the same thing in Cuba as the 2014 Ukraine rebellion Russia fomented and equipped, but instead of failing in 8 years, it utterly failed immediately and the Americans didn't decide to double down on their failure and actually invade like Russia has. America then allowed Cuba to be a Soviet ally, for everything except for forward deployed nuclear weapons which it then removed from Turkey.

> The regime change will come, but likely different than we thought - AfD in Germany, Farange in the UK and LePen in France.

Unfortunately you are correct, as Ruski Mir's greatest export is corruption.

The West suffers from the Paradox of Tolerance, and is generally unprepared to deal with Moscow's political operations.

The good news is that those are just three countries, and the EU is made of many more.

The crazy thing to me is that all that Europe wants is for Moscow to join us in the 21st century, and just stop murdering your neighbors.

Apparently this is too much to ask of the old guard. But, we all went through this and eventually became "normal countries." Russia will as well one day, and the Russian people will be one of the greatest beneficiaries of this maturation.

Your link says absolutely nothing about Ukraine losing the war with Russia.

This Prophetic Academic Now Foresees the West’s Defeat https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/09/opinion/emmanuel-todd-dec...

Emmanuel Todd: "Russia has won the war, the Ukrainian army is in its death throes" https://www.youtube.com/shorts/2zI3vzLKmao

Wow a YouTube short with no info and a paywalled article from 2024. Very convincing.

Here you go: https://archive.ph/RWSG3

Or use pass paywalls clean plug-in.

I honestly don't see how Russia is going to win. The West is never going to allow that, because the future consequences would be detrimental.

Russia is about to show what it's really made of. If it can't win against Ukraine's scaled-up defence industry, then I gotta say, all these doomsayers and West-Putin equivocators will look pretty dumb.

Germany had 4000 tanks during the cold war. It has now 350, 200 in working condition. She has ammunition for two days, now down to one because they gave a lot to Ukraine.

Denmark has give all her ammunition to Ukraine.

There is little of equipment left. And nobody willing to fight in the West. For what? For a crumbling economy? Unaffordable house prices? Collapsing social systems because two many immigrants draw from them? (Germany, UK)?

Good luck mate. I am not going to fight.

This is a pretty ignorant take mate (I thought you were American? I'm not from the EU). All I can say is don't be surprised when your prophet turns out to be wrong.

I have a bunch of passports. But no Russian/Eastern European.

k? That's not what I was asking.

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