Another dimension for the fronteir to move in is speed. Codex has /fast which is great, but yea the bottleneck right now in many cases is just the time it takes these tools to complete tasks. I'm running many sessions in parallel just because I'm waiting for tasks to finish. I'm constantly round robin'ing them, and kicking them off on the next 20 minute task. If these models were faster I wouldn't need to context switch as much.
I sometimes chuck a few tokens to gpt 5.5 and opus 4.8 and they can sometimes solve a problem one of the other models couldn’t, but they’re not like 10x better or anything in my experience. More like 1.2x better
If all I had was Fable for the next couple of years then I'd be totally fine with that. I have never felt that about any version of Opus.
Using cheaper models and using your skills and expertise from the pre-AI era can get you working just as fast. You've gotta be more specific about the work you need doing. It's less "vibes" based, but they're still effective.
Also, Chinese models absolutely are taking off. I used Claude and GPT at work, and then I tried using some Chinese models for personal projects. I am 100% convinced they're like 90% as good for 10% of the cost. But you've basically gotta be a good developer first and know what you want and know when it's giving you shit.
I’d describe it as something between Sonnet and Opus.
Of course, if you think that this approach is as fast and effective as "vibe coding" as in outsourcing more thinking to the AI, it is not surprising you would conclude the cheaper models were nearly as useful.
I don't know if you are right or not, a lot depends on the constraints of the project and team.
Some of the newer arguably now viable use cases, such as porting a large codebase to Rust, are certainly not going to be as fast with a more manual approach.
Eventually it plateaued and now you can do a decent chunk of your computing on something from 2012.
People keep saying scaling will top out, for example. But scaling keeps stubbornly refusing. New techniques keep coming along too. It's really still exploding into existence and every new generation brings new capability. Eventually it'll clear a ceiling for your key use cases and you'll stop worrying about new models.
It always pays to look back at history and see if you can pattern match.