"Without ai assistance" - ok, but what about with ai assistance?
Arguably, passion for a project is without price.
In ~1976 Mythical Man Month era it was around 5 lines of fully debugged assembly.
Code Complete 2nd edition ~2004 bumped that up to 10-50 delivered lines of code per day.
I found other estimates of around 20-60. I need to pull them altogether into a cited article.
Based on that plus my own experience I think 100 lines per day of production-level, reviewed and debugged code was a reasonably higher target for a professional software engineer up until just a couple of years ago.
Today I'm frequently pushing 2,000 to 4,000 - and that's not vibe coded junk (I can easily hit 10,000+ if I'm not reviewing anything), that's code that I've reviewed and am happy to put my name to.
Obviously counting lines of code is a stupid, easily gamed metric. But I still think there's signal there. If you want to build a sophisticated piece of software you're going to have to write a bunch of code to do it. Writing at 1,000+ lines of code per day vs 100 will get you there faster.
Someone else paying for the tokens.
Also someone seeing it through (should that come). Obviously we're not "at the moment when most of us can ask Fable to implement a custom compiler to a custom target for our favorite language, and even use it as a part of custom solution", without thousands to spare and lots of time to shape the solution.
If you're a hobbyist trying to compile python to your weird little arduino based thing, then that's a lot of money and you would want to use somebody else's solution, no doubt.
But if you're an aerospace company trying to compile for a flight control computer (and I guess you really want to use python for some reason), spending thousands of dollars on tokens to make and maintain a custom compiler could represent serious savings.
The big picture impact of AI that I see/anticipate the most is SAAS dying out because AI coding makes this kind of enablement and support software easier to make in-house, and this feels like an example of that, but maybe I'm seeing what I expect to see.
I wouldn't spend $100K in tokens to get a custom bare metal Python. Or even $10K.
And I'd guess that most devs wouldn't either, unless they spend $10K like it's nothing.
People that have "paid far more for far less" are people who have the money to buy $10K watches, or fancy multi $1000 clothes.
>But if you're an aerospace company trying to compile for a flight control computer (and I guess you really want to use python for some reason), spending thousands of dollars on tokens to make and maintain a custom compiler could represent serious savings.
If you're an aerospace company you're willing to pay thousands of dollars for a compiler, because you need a DO-178C certified toolchain so that you can DO-178C certify the whole airframe. Suggesting AI here tells me you have no clue about the realities of aerospace, because you've just thrown out the entire value proposition of the commercial toolchains.