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Given a powerful enough AI with enough outlays (eg. a Playwright instant), can an AI cheat by influencing the real world and self-fulfil its prediction?

Eg. Is corp ABC's stock price going to go down by 10% in 30 days?

Orchestrate a disinformation campaign on the 29th day to tank ABC's stock price.

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In theory but in this specific example you can make a lot more money on the stock market instead if it's that doable.

In general you should judge different prediction markets differently and read the fulfilment criteria though - some are very ripe for abuse, AI or no, while others are much more ironclad.

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