Comment by reinitctxoffset | Hacker News Reader

Comment by reinitctxoffset | Hacker News Reader

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reinitctxoffset

If the Trump administration decides to annoint Altman and Amodei in defiance of market forces it will rapidly discover that it no longer has the sovereign bond auction pricing power to prop them up. This isn't 1998: the Treasury has taken five major body blows in the last 25 years, the world's energy markets, maritime insurance regimes, electronic payments rails, and moral authority in places like the UN Security Council are effectively bifurcated. Oil and money and data and people just flow around the United States now. Canada's sovereign debt yields tank harder when the market is spooked, that's the North American flight to quality.

The administration could probably put some serious friction on open weight model use in the Fortune 500 for a little while, but the opposition never got such a gift right before a squeaker midterm. And outside of major enterprises with puckered ass compliance departments? Not a chance. It's popular around here to forget Uber and AirBnB and yes, OpenAI and Anthropic all got their start flagrantly breaking the law and grew lawyers and lobbyists faster than anyone could enforce it. And this time everyone from the DNC to the EFF would be holding hands wearing "Save The Models" t-shirts. Not even NVIDIA is remotely pretending they're anything but all in on GLM 5.2, they had an NVFP4 quant up by the time most people read the blog post.

And the Trump Administration isn't exactly enamored of Comrade Amodei at the moment, being as they're appealing the lawsuit Anthropic brought against the Pentagon during a shooting war.

Forcing the American proprietary AI megalab financing event was our fiscal Ukraine Special Military Operation, the market is calling the bluff and neither the capital markets nor the Federal Reserve has the dry powder to absorb this one.

The Treasury auctions will flat not clear in an orderly way. We can't raise 2-4 trillion dollars on a dime in 2026 and if CoreWeave turns out, as many suspect, to be Patient Zero? It would be that big a hole.

We play by the same rules as everyone else now. I hope we regard it as being worth it, but I fear we will not.

NVIDIA appears to play on several parallel paths that may compete with each other.

On one hand it appears to cooperate with OpenAI and Anthropic, as big customers.

On the other hand NVIDIA cooperates with Palantir, providing the HW for its "Sovereign AI OS" (a turnkey system including HW and SW for local inference and post-training/fine tuning) which uses the slogan "The future of AI is on-prem" (i.e. not as a customer of OpenAI or Anthropic, but using an open-weights LLM, e.g. a fine-tuned NVIDIA Nemotron or a Chinese LLM).

Presumably with the goal of promoting their competing solution, Alex Karp (Palantir CEO) has delivered a few weeks ago a very harsh criticism of Anthropic and OpenAI (who allegedly inflate the token consumption and they might also steal the data of their customers, which must be sent to them).

So NVIDIA both cooperates and competes with OpenAI and Anthropic.

It is in OpenAI, Anthropic, and the US Gov's best interest to slow China down and ban Chinese models. Literally none of what you wrote prevents them from doing so.

Once China starts to get scary, Commerce will export control GPUs and declare Chinese models "foreign munitions." Any nation doing business with the US will not be allowed to use these models either, and that will be the end of that.

It is just not in the US's interests to fund China in the race to AGI.

The assertion that it's in the United States Government's best interests ban Chinese open weight models is a very strong opinion that is not a consensus even at the fringe of Thiel-adjacent psycho thought: Alex Karp is on record about open weight models being necessary, the fucking "we bombed a bunch of kids with Claude doing rubber stamp target selection" guy. He thinks "trust OpenAI and Anthropic" is a radical position.

Peter Hegseth, another really pro-America being powerful guy, he's dealing with a lawsuit because he doesn't want Anthropic in his military, he calls it a supply chain risk (he's right).

There is no evidence of any kind that a complex attack vector can be trained into model weights and survive all the crazy slicing and dicing that happens between published weights and running model. These things get quantized and run on mathematically imprecise kernels and sampled and LoRA-tuned and Dolphin/Orca de-tuned. Go look at what the ComfyUI community comes up with, those guys know more about WAN 2.2 than the people who trained it. Because those models run for real on a desktop, so there's mad innovation at light speed.

There is no one who wants a capriciously expensive black box run by extremely creepy people, not once the capability crosses over (in about November).

But don't take my word for it, you just had a chance at one AI IPO, and I'm sure you'll get another, so if you like how that goes, you don't need to convince me!

I run local models every day.

We are in a race to superintelligence. The first country to AGI will be the first to superintelligence, and the first to superintelligence will have de facto control over the world and the future of humanity. They will also be able to prevent others from reaching superintelligence.

Of course it's in the US's best interest to slow down China. You aren't zooming out and looking at the big picture, you're taking models as slightly useful tool, not what they will soon turn into.

while china goes country to country organizing fairs through their embassies to get new business partners, the us sees the world as a zero sum game.

Global power does not run on kumbaya vibes. Superintelligence is a zero sum game whether you understand why it is or not.

I'm glad you trust a country that literally imprisons, rapes, and murders their human rights lawyers though. And one in which you cannot even criticize the government without being disappeared. Surely such a country is best positioned to have total control over all humanity, forever.

Again, none of what you're saying will make the US government, especially the current administration, care, as they have not cared about many things with consequences either; you're applying logic where there may not be any heed to it.

As well, it is a false equivalence to say that local models are only Chinese and otherwise we would use cloud models, but there are American or European ones, so a ban would simply force companies to use these, even if they are inferior to Chinese ones. It's simply a matter of national security to the US government, and they will not care what random people in media say.

The Pentagon classifies Anthropic a supply chain risk and is appealing a ruling with vigor to reinstate the it's right to decline doing business with them.

I don't know what part of this you guys are having trouble with, but it doesn't get a whole hell of a lot more emphatic on "what the US Government thinks" than who the Pentagon is in court with to avoid doing business with that party.

Mr. Hegseth is the representative of the administration in the AI usage policy of the largest bureaucratic organization in the history of civilization. He has emphatically rejected at least one black box American AI megalab and President Trump has endorsed this action on Truth Social.

The government's stated position is not what you among other commenters are stating or implying as the government's position.

OpenAI has ties to the government (via political donations) which likely will be getting that 5% stake too, so it is not just for Anthropic that the US could ban Chinese models. Consider, why wouldn't they when they already were considering it?

And you mention Hegseth but it was Lutnick at the Department of Commerce who banned Fable, so there are many competing parties in the government. Again, it is not just Anthropic who'd benefit from a Chinese model ban.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/17/us-deepseek-blacklist-cxmt-n...

I thought they already export controlled all GPUs above RTX. 5090 in power

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