I am not really seeing how the first chart can be construed as AI disrupting the junior job market...

The 22-25 red line had plateaued before the release of ChatGPT and was already trending downwards by the time ChatGPT appeared.

Additionally, it took a quite a while before vibe and agentic coding appeared and gained traction, and I cannot really see how the precipitous decline between say Jan 2023 and Jan 2024 can be attributed mainly to AI.

The "other" reasons mentioned later in the post seem much more convincing.