My understanding is that these are pretty low-tech chips only for industrial uses?
You might not be able to fabricate billion terraflop GPUs but at least the basics of survival will be able to be locally produced without scavenging washing machines for parts.
The (western) economy runs on sub 7nm phone, laptop and datacenter chips on which the white collar workforce produces value. Those are the ones that are also the most profitable since they have the highest margins. Europe doesn't have that.
Yes, the cutting edge is very nice, but any laptop past 2016 is useable for the average person. Even gpu inference on older process nodes is perfectly doable. The HPC space absolutely prefers newer chips but hasn't ripped out their 2018 chips in their clusters because they still deliver value.
And sure, the latest best things sells for higher margins for now, but with the way consumer prices are going, people may start choosing older still perfectly capable models that cost less.
The greater danger to a working economy is not absence of the absolute must cutting edge chips but lack of independence which this initiative seems to seek to curtail. Good for Germany.
Except, it's the cutting edge that makes more money than making HW from 2016. And EU would definitely like to make more money rather than less.
Plus, Germany and EU doesn't even make 2016 levels of PC HW to have sovereignty there. They still depend on importing US chips made in Taiwan even if they want 2016 HW.
>people may start choosing older still perfectly capable models that cost less.
Doesn't really matter what people are choosing, the high margin parts are going towards datacenter customers now, not to consumers. Consumers have little choice now.
And with new consumer stuff seeing price increases, even old used HW is also seeing price increases due to supply and demand. And none of this is a win for Germany and the EU since they don't capture much value from this.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_secto...
Also, in that case, manufacturing capacity is what counts and EU lacks that too.
Eu can't make yesterday's HW either. Nor HW form yester-dacde.
And the non-Apple, non-Google smartphone, like Korea and China have, create the backbone of supply chain electronics that enable the Korean and Chinese military tech to be so advanced and cheap.
How thick can you be to not see the importance of such an industry in the defense sector? You say Europe woke up from a coma, but from your argument, I can safely say we're still deep in it and there's no way we're ever waking up if the average Europoor thinks like you.
If this thing evolves into a global war who would we export to?
I don't like this framing.
These aren't logic ICs but that doesn't mean they are useless or "easy".
Heck, the only countries with Gallium Nitride fabrication capabilities and knowhow are the US, China, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Germany, and India.
In fact, compound semiconductors and power electronics is one segment where Europe's China dependency is extremely high, as they have significant uses from automotive to PLCs to weapons systems, and China has already begun embargoing the EU's access to rare earth elements [0] and has begun enforcing sanctions against the EU's aerospace and UAV industry [1].
These are dual use technologies and a major reason why both the US and China heavily invested in compound semiconductor capacity in the late 2010s and early 2020s.
Edit: can't reply
> In 2024 Belgium closed its only semi fab, which had recently pivoted to GaN
THEMA Foundries is working in photonics, not GaNs [2]. The GaN initiative (BelGaN) failed and the only two buyers interested in buying out the property for GaN fabrication were a Chinese and Indian player [2].
[0] - https://www.reuters.com/world/china/eu-firms-brace-more-shut...
[1] - https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3351292/...
[2] - https://www.semiconductor-today.com/news_items/2025/apr/belg...
So basically all major industrial powers? In which case I don't get the use of the world "only" here, as if the EU, the richest block in the world, deserve praise for doing something countries a lot less wealthier are doing.
> and China has already begun embargoing the EU's access to rare earth elements [0] and has begun enforcing sanctions against the EU's aerospace and UAV industry [1].
The way it's framed it sounds like China is some evil bad guy for doing that but that's standard practice that the EU and US also do. The EU also restricts ASML EUV machines to China and sanctions Chinese tech in their defense sector. Standard stuff.
ASEAN doesn't have the capacity yet, but this is changing in 3-5 years as Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam have gotten IP transfers from European, Korean and Japanese technology partners.
Neither does the rest of the Europe excluding an Ireland-UK-UAE JV called ChipX (but the team is largely located in the US, UAE, Malaysia, and Japan) and the portion of STMicro in France that was part of state-owned Thomson Semiconducteurs before it was privatized.
Neither do any of the major industrial states in the Americas like Canada, Mexico, or Brazil.
> that's standard practice that the EU and US also do
My point is that states need to build domestic capacity where possible. And the EU is not a state. France continued to protect their GaN fabrication IP closely (not even sharing it with Italy despite STMicro being a French-Italian JV), and same with Germany to a certain extent.
It's actually the US that restricts ASML from selling EUV machines to China. The EUV light source itself is American technology developed and produced by Cymer in California. ASML was only permitted to acquire Cymer in 2014 under a strict technology sharing and export control agreement with the US government.
It's why, for instance, ASML's next generation research lithography machine is currently being installed in upstate New York and not somewhere in the Netherlands.
Or more likely because there's already a semi fab in upstate new york and no fabs in the netherlands.
ASML was one of the founding partners in Albany NanoTech in collaboration with SEMATECH which became the Upstate NY Semiconductor Cluster back in the mid-2000s [0][1].
It was out of SEMATECH that DUV and EUV Photolithography was productionized and licensed to ASML.
Much of the underlying IP used by ASML is licensed and firewalled under JVs with the US DoE and/or the SUNY Consortium (primarily their D/EUV light source work) or firewalled and export controlled by Taiwan (primarily their metrology work)
Btw, that tidbit has become one of the main vetting techniques I use now to see whether someone is blowing hot air or has actual experience in the Semiconductor industry.
[0] - https://www.eetimes.com/asml-to-build-400-million-us-researc...
[1] - https://www.eetimes.com/asml-sematech-team-on-manufacturing-...
If you actually knew as much as you claim, you'd have known that ASML bought SVG in 2001, and became ASML US, so in 2004, it was ASML US, former SVG, that was investing in SEMATECH, not the Dutch ASML. It may have the ASML label, but it still remains a sovereign US operation, like you said firewalled form the rest.
I could be wrong about some of this, but if so then it's another good chance for you to flex again on how you know more than some of us.
And it's not about flexing. I've gotten tired of reflexive Euro- and American nationalism on HN by people who don't work in the industry.
People dissing fairly hard European initiatives like Infineon work building a GaN wafer fab instead of one dedicated to logic ICs or going the complete opposite and postulating the EU can be completely cut off from the US and replicate every technology from scratch are both constantly brought up on HN and are ridiculous positions.
Design capacity doesn't imply fabrication capacity, as can be seen with Israel and India's comparative dominance in the chip design industry.
Design capacity (basically programming and logic design) is orthogonal to front-end fabrication (basically material science and chemical engineering) which is orthogonal to back-end/OSAT (basically materials science and metrology).
Only the US and Taiwan have domestic E2E capacity in all 3.
[1]They need to use US EDA tools, And manufacture masks but maybe there are tricks they won't need to trust them - like inspecting critical parts of the masks.
One could say they have an even bigger real world impact.
We can vibecode SaaS junk that we will have all forgotten about this time next year at never-before-seen speed, but every single day, hundreds or thousands of times a day, you brush up against something that was built by an AB or Siemens PLC installed in 2004 that might be slated for decommissioning in a decade or so.
What a silly argument. You DO NEED those 2nm CPUs and GPUs to run the CAD and CAE work to design an effective missile and run the battlefield sensor fusion and intelligence data processing to decide when and where to drop that missile. Otherwise if you stay low tech on 20 year old HW, you end up like Russian army today.
Look at EU supercomputers that run these tasks along with the computation needed for high-margin EU industries like pharma such as Novo Nordisk, and it all runs on low-nm US chips made in Taiwan, not EU made microcontrollers and mosfets. Where's EU domestic sovereignty there?
>Every phone SoC release for the last 10 years combined has done less in the real, concrete world we live in than industrial controls hardware from 30 years ago.
An out of touch argument on manipulating a definition of "real work". Work done by industrial controllers isn't "more real" than that done by CPUs and GPUs. By this definition the janitors and handyman in the hospital does more "real work" than the x-ray tech sitting looking at cat videos between looking at x-rays all day. Our economy, yes even in the EU, works on who and what creates more added value to the economy, not whose job is more tough and gritty getting their hands dirty. Work smart, not hard.
>We can vibecode SaaS junk that we will have all forgotten about this time next year [...] you brush up against something that was built by an AB or Siemens PLC installed in 2004 that might be slated for decommissioning in a decade or so
Again, more ignorance. Jobs on vibe coding a SaaS pays way better in Europe and gets you better perks and working conditions, than writing the code of a PLC. Ask me how I know(former embedded programmer here in the semi industry). Or just look up the salaries on the jobs market. The SW industry just pays way better than the industrial controller HW industry. Yeah, the latter is important too, but clearly not important enough when you see the salaries you're offered, meaning they don't actually value it as much.
Your luddite comment just reeks of the typical German/European ignorance and arrogance that made us fall behind the tech race, the EV race, etc leading to the EU losing a lot of GDP and influence on the world stage: "We don't need this battery EV car shit, you can just use diesel engines from 10 years ago", "we don't need this fancy self driving shit, our drivers love driving our cars themselves".
We've been able to do intensive CAD and CAE to make effective missiles for a long while now. Modern process nodes are not required. Iran has been doing appreciable missile damage to US bases, and has never entered the TOP500.
> and run the battlefield sensor fusion and intelligence data processing to decide when and where to drop that missile.
We have current, ongoing conflicts where it's clear that battlefield sensor fusion and intelligence data processing is taking the backseat to just shooting people, blowing people up, and blowing obvious buildings and installations up. I know that is a gross oversimplification, but militaries worldwide have been chasing after sci-fi shit that's going to be The Future of War just for 99% of the ideas to hit the scrap pile while the remaining 1% develop into incremental improvements in doctrine. The most impactful idea to come out of the Russia-Ukraine war has been strapping an RPG-7 round to an ATmega328-controlled quadcopter, no Nvidia H200s involved.
>Otherwise if you stay low tech on 20 year old HW, you end up like Russian army today.
I'm sorry, but I don't know how you can say with a straight face that technological issues are even close to the top of the list of issues for the Russian military.
>Look at EU supercomputers that run these tasks, along with the computation needed for high-margin EU industries like pharma such as Novo Nordisk, and it all runs on low-nm US chips made in Taiwan,
Something being high margin doesn't mean it's a critical part of European sovereignty. Novo Nordisk making 75% of its profits on selling weight loss drugs to overweight Americans is indirectly good for the bloc because money is generally useful, but it's hardly a matter of security. A lot of low-margin businesses are massively subsidized for this reason. Why do you think the US has such massive subsidies for farming?
>not EU made microcontrollers and mosfets. Where's EU domestic sovereignty there?
The MCUs and FETs are what allows any semblance of day-to-day life to continue. If you had to choose to be a nation with only power electronics and MCUs, or a nation with only high-end CPUs, any sane person is picking the former. It follows that you focus on making sure the former is in place first.
>An out of touch argument on manipulating a definition of "real work". Work done by industrial controllers isn't "more real" than that done by CPUs and GPUs.
In a literal sense, yes, in most cases it is. You NEED the microcontrollers and power electronics to support the production of critical infrastructure and equipment more than you need the latest phone SoC. Even if you have the cutting edge CPUs and GPUs, if you are cut off from other componentry, you're not getting very far with it.
>By this definition the janitors and handyman in the hospital does more "real work" than the x-ray tech sitting looking at cat videos between looking at x-rays all day.
The tradesmen built the hospital in the first place, and the support staff keep it running. Yes, the x-ray tech would massively outstrip the strategic importance of the people that actually build and maintain the hospitals if buildings lasted forever and you never planned on building another hospital again.
>Our economy, yes even in the EU, works on who and what creates more added value to the economy, not whose job is more tough and gritty getting their hands dirty. Work smart, not hard.
Alcohol, advertising, gambling, and porn create a huge amount of added value. These are of very little interest to national security.
>Again, more ignorance. Jobs on vibe coding a SaaS pays way better in Europe and gets you better perks and working conditions, than writing the code of a PLC. Ask me how I know(former embedded programmer here in the semi industry). Or just look up the salaries on the jobs market. The SW industry just pays way better than the industrial controller HW industry. Yeah, the latter is important too, but clearly not important enough when you see the salaries you're offered, meaning they don't actually value it as much.
Those salaries are massively suppressed by various cultural dynamics in Europe, and a misplaced trust in the US to protect it. Europe is waking up to the possibility that the US may not be a permanent ally. The government that no longer trusts NATO's biggest spender isn't concerned about your wish that they would primarily invest in cutting edge technology that has as-of-yet undetermined returns in national security so that you can have a salary closer to what you would see in an American tech company.
>Your luddite comment just reeks of the typical German/European ignorance and arrogance that made us fall behind the tech race, the EV race, etc leading to the EU losing a lot of GDP and influence on the world stage: "We don't need this battery EV car shit, you can just use diesel engines from 10 years ago", "we don't need this fancy self driving shit, our drivers love driving our cars themselves".
I'm in the US. I don't have a dog in the hunt. I do agree that European ignorance/arrogance has put your nations and you personally in a bad position. I truly am sorry that you can't make the money you want working on the things that will allow you to endure if the rubber actually meets the road. Even though that's all true, prioritizing cutting-edge chip fab over the basics that are supporting your ability to defend and provide for yourselves at the most basic level is just an incorrect move. It is not a coincidence that this stuff picked up steam after the war in Ukraine started, and Trump started floating the idea of leaving NATO.
The highest margin businesses in EU run on US IP made in Taiwan. How is that on sovereignty? I literally addressed this twice. It's a massive vulnerability that nobody in the EU is even remotely addressing. Making our own 0,02$ microcontrollers and mosfets is missing the forest from the trees. Why do you think China is making their own GPUs now?
>The tradesmen built the hospital in the first place, and the support staff keep it running.
Except there's more tradesmen than x-ray techs on the market, and training or importing the former from aboard is a lot easier and cheaper than the latter. Flawed argument.
>The MCUs and FETs are what allows any semblance of day-to-day life to continue.
So does having shoes on your feet, yet we don't onshore shoe manufacturing in the west.
>Those salaries are massively suppressed by various cultural dynamics in Europe, and a misplaced trust in the US to protect it.
No, they're suppressed by the EU business elites who want cheap labor. The US is the convenient boogieman so that the Europoors don't guillotine their leaders and oligarchs.
>so that you can have a salary closer to what you would see in an American tech company.
Haha, that's just wishful thinking. HW and embedded SW jobs still pay like shit in Europe because the EU economy is so shit it's too addicted to offshoring and driving labor costs into the ground in the race to the bottom to increase shareholder value. So everyone still wants to be a Saas tech-bro than an engineer because it pays better.
>prioritizing cutting-edge chip fab over the basics that are supporting your ability to defend and provide for yourselves at the most basic level is just an incorrect move.
My brother in Christ, cutting edge fabs can also make 0,02$ microcontrollers and transistors in case of war, they're not stuck making GPUS. There's no logical reason to stay on ancient processes nodes other than because you're too broke to afford cutting edge fabs. Why do you think China is so depurate to make cutting edge fabs and not stay on >7nM?
Your arguments are mostly flawed based on poor understanding of sovereignty, supply chains and market economics.
That's a massive contradiction stemming from ignorance, based your skewed and subjective definition of what's more important.
With more money from selling the former high-profit stuff, you can just buy the latter low-margin stuff from a sea of suppliers/countries locked in a race to them bottom to sell to you. Which is how the US economy works and grows.
And the later being less profitable is at constant danger from rising competitors in Asia meaning EU companies have more competition and less margins and why their wages are lower.
If you're still confused on how you judge what's more important, in essence, making more money IS what's more important, not making low margin trinkets that you subjectively see as being more important. Like the arab states don't make jack shit, but they still get to buy the most cutting edge shit they need thanks to their massive oil money.
Because with your logic, making shoes would be more important, because without shoes people wouldn't be able to walk outside their houses, when shoes are actually low margin commodity readily available from thousands of sweatshops, not something any country takes pride in manufacturing domestically anymore, for better and for worse.