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Comment by DyslexicAtheist | Hacker News Reader

most of it is overstated because of marketing. in fact the ban looked like an inside job by the current administration to play with the stock value. if the ban did anything it was to make every n00b agree that Anthropic was so far ahead of its times it needed to be banned.

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I feel like I'm loosing my mind with the way people are falling for the marketing with every iteration. Is it better, sure but it's still just a LLM.

These days an LLM + a harness can one-shot playable Minecraft clones. This tech has come a long way since it was first released.

You are saying: it turns out that one-shot playable Minecraft clones are actually pretty simple. Maybe it seemed a hard problem to programmers, but why not just say that the verifiable-rewards training has shown that their skill is unusually simple?

What a great example of the no true Scotsman fallacy.

I am saying 3 years ago there wasn't a snowballs chance in hell I could one shot a playable Minecraft clone, and there has never been a snowballs chance in hell a human developer could do so in 45 minutes.

The difficulty of the task and human performance on that task hasn't changed. LLMs performance on that task has changed dramatically.

it could almost certainly regurgitate something like minetest

its in the training data, probably many times, and it was then, too

And that's exactly why 3 years ago we saw people one shotting it in 45 minutes :)

"Some idiot on Twitter did a game tech demo" has been a thing since, like GPT 3.5 or 4.0?

It has. We can see 3.5 started with text adventure games https://medium.com/@duncanariey/using-chatgpt-to-make-the-it... and with 4.0 it moved up to pong https://x.com/skirano/status/1635736107949195278

As the generations increase, so too has the complexity of the games it can one-shot.

But nobody has nailed "this is a game anyone wants to play" or "professional game development life cycles are shorter" so it's not particularly impressive.

I'm still waiting for any evidence of LLM economic impact in the real world.

Yeah, well I doubt any economic impact will from LLMs will ever come. I doubt anyone is working on nailing those things as we speak. I doubt the results my team and I are getting with agentic engineering are real. I doubt anyone can take increasingly better tools and translate that to economic value.

If you're doing such amazing things why the need to gush about Minecraft tweets?

Why wouldn't I be?

Those demos are put out by non-engineer AI-bros who start from a blank slate and just test raw one-shot performance of the model.

In comparison I'm aware of how much additional performance you can extract out of models with a team of professional engineers that are balls-deep in harness engineering.

That delta is very large.

It's exciting.

Can't wait to see what unusually simple Erdos problem LLMs will expose next, hiding in plain sight for decades and seemingly intractable for professional mathematicians who weren't aware just how simple the problem was.

Stock value?

Not publicly traded as they haven't IPOd yet (the part where those closely held shares become publicly traded), but Anthropic does absolutely have shares, and there is a valuation on those shares. I don't quite understand how the administration is playing this, beyond the normal corrupt protection racket stuff they're doing all the time now, but Dario is absolutely gearing every public apocalyptic prediction on juicing the "stock".

I mean, if the matryoshka doll rent-a-gpu farce that is SpaceX somehow is worth $2T with their garbage child porn xAI, Anthropic must be worth quadzillions.

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