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If they always got the decay correct, we wouldn't have confirmed debris impact on the ground. It would be destroyed long before it reached.

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/after-fiery-displa...

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That satellite's orbit very clearly did decay, though. The problem in that instance is the descent wasn't controlled, but that's a different kind of failure than the one this thread is worried about (i.e. satellites lingering for many years without active collision avoidance).

Decayed without breaking down, is my point. There was a failure. Which means failure is a possibility and not something to just dismiss.

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