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Completely stopping people from using open source models is impossible, but if it became a federal law there could be incredible pressure exerted on US companies. For example, OpenRouter might be compelled to not accept open source requests on threat of fines.

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Companies who spend lots of $$$ making a model and then open sourcing it might decide not to if the use of the model were banned in the USA.

I'm just a guy who writes code and geopolitics and big business is usually above my head

That said, I have a suspicion that if the US exerts that kind of pressure on US companies, they will just pivot to using offshore contractors that are doing the things they want

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