So, we're talking 40GW. Lets see what China does:
https://energyandcleanair.org/china-energy-and-emissions-tre...
"In the first two months of 2026, China added:
32.5 gigawatts (GW) of solar power capacity, down 18% from last year. 11 GW of wind power capacity, up 19% from last year. 20 GW of thermal power capacity, up 414% from last year. 1.2 GW of hydro power capacity, down 36% from last year. 1.2 GW of nuclear power capacity. "
Edit: to the proponents of nuclear - i think nuclear is very damaging to society as it promotes corrupt crony-government capitalism instead of market forces.
But I haven't looked into where these datacenter are being placed, I'm assuming that although solar is cheap now, the surface needed would make the purchase of nearby land probably not worth it. These new categories of datacenters are becoming very energy dense...
- battery storage
- and in the article
"However, AI labs and some hyperscalers have relaxed those requirements as there is now a lower uptime tolerance applied to both inference and training, not just training. Many of Meta’s self-built AI datacenters, for example, target just two nines of uptime and forgo backup generators entirely, as detailed in our Industrials Model."
And grid battery works and is cheap enough now.
In the real world you'd need to add some cost to account for the externalities on water and GHG.
Do the numbers still work out for the gas powered plant? If not then you're just exploiting unaccounted for externalities.
In Europe, we approach energy generation as a political, or climate problem. We are building solar and wind power sources, not to make energy cheaper, or to make grid more resilient, but to fulfill an ideological goal.
The results are, not great, to be honest. The energy prices have increased substantially, and are now driving our chemical industry bankrupt.
Edit: I do not dispute the climate change. I am only highlighting impacts of current policy.
yes, they don't seem to fall for the "solar is unstable" trap and recognize new reality - the solar + wind smoothed by nuclear/gas is the new baseline
To the comment on the coal below : not really. You don't need that much as a smoothing capacity.
Europe's generation is roughly flat during the same period.
It doesn't make sense to build a lot of everything in a system without growth in generation. Replacing decommisioned generators would be enough. Growth in solar and wind generation (for ideological or economic reasons) means there's less reason to build new capacity of other types. There's complications there with firm vs intermittent capacity, but that's a different discussion.
US electrical generation was also flat from 2000 to 2020, but seems to be growing again since then, but not anywhere near China's growth rate.
But coal was 4.1 million GWh in 2014 and 5.0 million GWh in 2021; that's a lot of (relatively) new coal. Fossil fuel growth since 2023 is a lot less than earlier years, so maybe they have hit saturation for fossil fuel generation. I would expect high fossil fuel prices so far this year would drive usage lower, the stats for 2026 should be interesting.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_China
https://ember-energy.org/data/electricity-data-explorer/?ent...
Also the average age of Chinese coal power plants is much lower then the average age of US coal power plants. These new Chinese coal power plants could be used for decades.
Last available data from 2025.
https://www.statista.com/chart/36007/power-capacity-of-new-d...
https://globalenergymonitor.org/projects/global-coal-plant-t...
I do not pay attention to the "decommissioning" statistic, because a binary on/off switch is an arbitrary threshold.
Example -- China reduces the output of every coal plant to 1%, they would be "decommissioning" nothing, yet it would be fair to say they've abandoned coal.
That's why it's a better metric to look at change in net coal usage (which is flat or going down in China last year), which factors in non-binary underutilization of old coal plants, as new coal and renewables come online.
From ZeroGravitas in the parallel thread: https://ember-energy.org/data/electricity-data-explorer/?ent...
The utilization of coal power plant fleet is decreasing, the total amount of produced electricity from coal is decreasing.
"Coal usage" in China is different from "Coal usage for electricity production" in China, as the coal use as a feedstock for chemical and liquid fuels will increase in China.
https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/chi...
In 2025 China mined more coal than in 2024, at the same time China produced less electricity from coal in 2025 than in 2024.
"China's coal output rose to a record in 2025, statistics bureau data showed on Monday, as lower domestic prices prompted buyers to cut imports and rebuild stockpiles with cheaper local supply, although the rise was limited by regulator efforts to curb production growth.
Production in 2025 reached 4.83-billion metric tons, up 1.2% from 2024, according to the National Bureau of Statistics."
https://www.miningweekly.com/article/china-2025-coal-output-...
Without enforcement it will happen continuously with snail pace
2.2-2.5 GWdc solar capacity which at 600W/panel amounts to 14-17sq mi plus additional 8-12GWh of storage to deal with nighttime, two-three days of cloud cover is not going to work with these numbers.
Ballpark 5-7BN$
Nuclear otoh, 1GW continuous - gives constant power, badly managed first of a kind (or first one after decades) build will be at around 10-15BN and that’ll cover two 500MW data centres.
There’s also the second/third degree order effects nuclear power stations have of creating jobs and industrial manufacturing demand. To run a nuclear power station you need to employ 1000 people (engineers plus support staff) - that’s a small town’s worth of adults. So you’ll need a town with a school, hospitals, stores - those need staffing as well.
Unfortunately building nuclear is not something that’s currently a feasible path as it requires patient capital and long term vision and planning.
So gas turbines it is at around ~1BN$
HN arguing in favour of a planned economy - see, we aren't free-market cultists!
Sometimes they ignore the transportation costs, as for example: capital costs for transporting 1 GW of electricity over 1,000 km using High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) technology costs more then the 1 GW peak solar power plant attached to the power line.
China builds everything solar, coal, wind, hydro, nuclear. So if you want follow the example of China, then you have to, like China, build everything and don't just pick one part of Chinas energy strategy.
Also I would not present China as an example of market capitalism, they have a very strong government capitalism. Probably the strongest government capitalism in the world.
I find that it's just a shame to be so close to energy abundance - through renewables - to only be set back by the installation of "temporary" gas turbines. The economic incentive is so great that delaying the datacenters in order to power them cleanly isn't even considered: there's no incentive to do so. This may sound a little alarmist, but if it's GW of capacity in 2028, it's TW in the mid 30s.
I'd much rather live in a heavily compute-constrained world for the next 5 years or so than in a world that keeps increasing its gas consumption.
There's just no way to force our incentive to align with preserving our climate, and it's making me extremely depressed.
By your logic we shouldn't question any development, at any cost, including if it contributes to making our world uninhabitable for billions of people within our life's timescale?
Putin only has a certain amount of the resource on tap and sells it to someone eventually. Meanwhile data centers will eat up whatever you throw at them at any price, especially that in principle they don't need to be connected to the grid, so I imagine setting up their power supply must take months at the longest.
When the price is right all kinds of contracts and agreements are usually thrown out the window - especially if the penalties are small enough to make it worth it.
Way easier to just sell it closer to home and not bother with transporting it in a tanker which has to return empty. Demand is clearly there and not somewhere else.
But fuck them, they are poor people so we don't care about them /s .
Additionally, people against data centers are accused of being paid by China [2]
[1] https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/feb/13/elon-mus... [2] https://fortune.com/2026/06/10/kevin-oleary-trump-administra...
Sacrificing it all for making tech bros richer seems like a ridiculously bad play.
Additionally, you proved my point that the majority really doesn't care about the folks whose quality of life worsen because someone built a datacenter close to their homes. Or the fact that turbines still pollute the air with NOx emissions (which cause lung cancer and other respiratory problems).
You are basically saying that it is not so bad, but (I guess) it is because you aren't close to a datacenter not depending on the grid. And I trust more hearing about live accounts of people being affected, than a "trust me bro, it is not as bad". Are the accounts cherry-picked? Maybe, but they are also supported by videos that substantiate what they are saying.
Also, I don't believe one bit my life has been subsidized. Wealthy people don't throw money around if there is no profit to be made. At best they subsidize stuff to get you hooked before raising prices and raking the money in.
Additionally, I paid people to build my own house with money that I earned, and same for my car. And I now live in a country where we pay living wages and not force people to do 2-3 jobs to stay afloat. So I didn't exploit anyone as those people received months of salaries for them and their families thanks to my house.
The only thing I can concede to your argument is that things like my phone or laptop are cheap because people in the world are exploited while mining and in Foxconn like factories and for that I am trying to limit my tech footprint.
There is money now for a huge investment boom, which is what is happening in the US and China. With EU failing completely.
Not in western Europe, because they spent almost all their excess economic output over the past few decades on welfare/transfer payments.
Eg, the disastrous energy policies all across Europe which have made price of energy insanely high with no hope of ever coming down (these high prices are all locked in with long term contracts).
America just builds lots of new power. Because of fewer market distorting policies the new power comes online at cheaper marginal rates so the price doesn't go up. And now Texas has some of the greener and cheapest energy in the West.
The Russian gas is cheaper, but paid by Ukrainian blood.
At some point, probably in the 80s, the prophets of Mammon convinced policymakers that the liquidity of capital markets was the highest good, that no liquidity was enough, and that the financial class is inherently productive.
When we bailed out the banks in 2008, it amounted to a wealth transfer from the public purse to Jamie Dimon. That's your counterproductive welfare spending.
Texas had blackouts last year because free-market fundamentalism. Perhaps Texans should run their fridges on investment boom.
Spain also had blackouts.
Of the three economic powers, the one with the most social welfare and least capitalist is the one that never recovered from the 2008 crisis. Funny how that is. Strange when all the welfare gets spent in the economy.
The one with the unproductive capital buying back shares is building GW datacenters. The other with "productive" capital, is encouraging people not to buy ACs because the electric grid cant handle it and using energy is bad for the environment.
The Spanish blackout, singular, last year was a cascading control plane faillure - i.e. independent of resource allocation. Texas failed to prepare for predictable winter storms - i.e. a market failure.
Germany is your counterpoint to Texas, if any, not Spain. I will help you throw rocks at German energy policy, if you like, otherwise I fear you would miss. Again.
> Capitalism is evil
I suspect I'm more pragmatic than your straw man. If you want my political stance, just ask.
> Capitalism ... lifted more people out of poverty than anything in history
Soap has lifted more people out of poverty than capitalism.
Capitalism overlaps historically with rationalism, the segue from divine right to representative government, the professionalisation of war, nationalism, colonialism, chattel slavery in the colonies, industrialisation, long-distance communication, long-distance travel, the labour movement, and countless technological advances in, e.g., agriculture and medicine.
It was not the cause of any of those things; it merely existed during that time. It was not capitalism that taught farmers to rotate crops and surgeons to wash hands, it was science.
We know this because China went through all the stages.
In 1950, America had an advanced industrial base and was the only power left standing. China was an agrarian society struggling with a self-inflicted famine.
Today, China is America's peer. Sick Man Of Asia to superpower in three generations.
A communist planned economy produced the same result as capitalism, and did it faster, from a worse starting point.
The USSR collapsed because of a skill issue, but it also went from agrarian to superpower in three generations.
Will you discard that piece of dogma now?
> ...is the one that never recovered from the 2008 crisis
You brought up the 08 crash... in defence of free-market capitalism. I can't tear my eyes off this car crash. Please, continue, I need more.
No Spain failed to plan for green energy intermittency which led to cascading failure. They did not have enough base load power. Another country bad at planning is UK: https://watt-logic.com/2026/07/02/neso-cutting-exports-durin...
So we have Germany, UK and Spain managing their grid poorly. All government managed.
> A communist planned economy produced the same result as capitalism, and did it faster, from a worse starting point.
Capitalism is not tied to democracy. Read up on market reforms of China before being a smart ass. China has more free market competition domestically than any developed economy, which is why their EVs are so cheap or practically anything they make. The government making high level plans on how their economy gets developed is entirely normal for every major economy and has been done in the US and EU, they just regressed at it while China improved on it. They are the most capitalist society on earth.
> You brought up the 08 crash... in defence of free-market capitalism. I can't tear my eyes off this car crash. Please, continue, I need more.
Yeah now check the GDP growth of EU and US after that. We in the EU are going through a managed decline, the US lows are followed by highs and investment booms unlike anything the EU has or will ever see.
I do expect you to entertain my counterpoint and to look it up if you don't believe me. Repeating the same wrong point makes you look insincere.
The UK built solar without storage. But since it doesn't have blackouts, that is pure whataboutism. I'll help you throw rocks at German energy policy, but it should be noted that "fuck nuclear, Russian gas is quick and cheap" is coincidentally the maximally free-market direction.
> China ... [is] the most capitalist society on earth
Lol
> [muh gfc recovery]
Lol. Doubled down on a losing hand, again. We're done.