Hacker News Reader

Cosma Shalizi's "null model of scientific inquiry" [1] seems relevant here. Basically it's a model where all published findings are due to the file drawer effect [2]. In such a model, scientific results will indeed have a "half-life" until they are overturned.

[1] http://masi.cscs.lsa.umich.edu/~crshalizi/weblog/698.html

[2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Publication_bias

"IN PRIMARY school Babbage learned that there were nine planets in the solar system. None were known to exist outside it."

There were only 7 planets known when Charles Babbage was a youth. Neptune was discovered when he was an old man, and Pluto was not discovered until almost 60 years after his death.

"Babbage" is the name of a column in the Economist, and is used in this sense to refer to the author of the column. So the writer is talking about his or her own schooling.

There is a excerpt from chapter 1 of the book at the authors website.

http://arbesman.net/the-half-life-of-facts/

Thomas Kuhn's "The Structure of Scientific Revolutions" should be mentioned. Far more germaine than "Consilience."

The half-life of facts