I have mostly enjoyed AI programming and I do like using Codex. The truth is that it sometimes makes me more way more productive, but not usually. Many days are spent writing specs and babysitting prompts and it can suck. Even expensive Codex 5.4/5.5 with high thinking writes code that is just ... lazy. It takes a lot of work to get it to write excellent code. It's definitely a full time job all by itself.

I'm not talking about rocket scientist code either - I'm talking about things using raw for( instead of range-based for, or writing code that is absolutely fucking riddled with imperative logic, hacks, and kludges, when something should clearly be data-driven. Stuff that is so bad I have to tell it to start over. It routinely designs amazing architecture and absolute shit architecture, sometimes on the same day. It's just so weirdly inconsistent. If you ask it to fix a bug then you have to double check if it used a hack and sometimes it will admit to it. Sometimes it lies.

I just do not see how AI is going to replace large numbers of seasoned engineers. That would be a disaster for companies that try it. Could it replace large numbers of juniors? Yes. And maybe I am being fantastically naive. I'm 100% willing to concede that it's possible or even likely.