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Is it really false? You can go on about survivorship bias but in the end a prerequisite is necessary for opportunity/chance

Can't win the lottery if you never buy any tickets

> Is it really false?

Even your own analogy for it is buying a lottery ticket.

Does buying a lottery ticket "lead to success"? Only if your picture of what that looks like focuses on only the winners.

in reality no, for the sake of the analogy, yes