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What would that IPO look like when they can’t sell their product to users and are hard capped on how much money they can earn?

A private holding company and multiple smaller subsidiaries going public.

It'll only be good if they do get to release it to the general public in a format that is not overly nerfed.

If they don't get to release, its bad. It paints a picture that we are largely stuck with current capabilities for a while and the party is over. All those promises of "you'll get to fire everyone" now go concretely unfulfilled.

Their entire valuations rely on the assumption of continued massive breakthroughs in intelligence and capabilities, and having revenue on part with taking a share of the GPD provided by white collar workers as they get replaced.

It will reduce usage and spur investments into competitors from the EU and likely other large nations, most likely hurting these upcoming IPOs.