Microsoft Is Disappearing Before Our Very Eyes | Hacker News Reader

Microsoft Is Disappearing Before Our Very Eyes

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Surface is available only through Microsoft, and the limited distribution is going to make it a nonplayer this holiday season. The more powerful Surface Pro -- fueled by Windows 8 Pro to give a more complete PC-like experience than today's Surface -- will be out next month, all but killing demand for the less powerful Surface that's available now.

Bingo! Surface-RT made it in time for the holiday season... but Surface-Pro did not. Cue the Osborne Effect http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osborne_Computer_Corporation#Th....

Surface Pro will sell even less than Surface RT. rumored price & battery life are already seriously hampering any lust people might have had for it. If I have 1k to spend, I'd rather get a proper ultra-book.

Which is doubly ironic... the broken promise of the Pro is likely to kill both the RT and the Pro.

It has the same battery life as the 11 inch Macbook Air and very similar specs across the board.

In what way is it not a proper ultra-book ?

If the Surface is basically the same as a MBA 11", why not just get the MBA 11" with a proper keyboard and bigger screen?

OT: Just today on Metro North I had occasion to open up my 13.3" MBP and do a bit of work in one of the cramped jumper seats. Even balancing on one knee, it worked reasonably. Would have been a cinch on an 11" MBA. Would have been impossible on the Surface Pro.

The keyboard isn't glued on, it's held by magnets and flops off, provides no structural support. You can't prop it up in your lap like you can a MacBook Air or any notebook for that matter. It's a tablet with a keyboard that's only useful if you have a desk.

It runs Windows 8 and only Windows 8, so unlike a MacBook or even a small Dell notebook, Linux isn't an option. It's locked down in the worst possible way, more like an iPad than an Air.

I'm not even sure what the market for this is. People who want a computer with a relatively terrible keyboard? People who want a bulky alternative to the iPad?

My only hope is the pen is actually useful as this would be less expensive than the equivalent Wacom Cintiq.

Surface Pro can run classic Windows apps in desktop mode remember - hardly locked down.

I'm not talking about apps, I'm talking about the entire OS. This is not intended to be a general purpose computing device. It is not a traditional notebook or a replacement for one.

> It runs Windows 8 and only Windows 8, so unlike a MacBook or even a small Dell notebook, Linux isn't an option. It's locked down in the worst possible way, more like an iPad than an Air.

Is that speculation or do you have a reference for that?

It's still speculation until someone confirms it, but as far as I can tell, UEFI is a requirement for Windows 8, and it's not good: http://www.pcadvisor.co.uk/news/software/3374039/installing-...

It's possible that a Linux certification for UEFI will come about, but that will mean you're restricted to certain flavors of Linux and not able to freely install whatever.

You can turn off secure boot in the settings and run whatever you want to.

Any reference to that?

Right. I'd much rather have an Asus Transformer style Windows 8 tablet + keyboard dock / second battery. Hopefully they'll come with more storage and battery time than the Surface Pro. Plus they'll likely be in the major retailers rather than just Microsoft's stores.

Wish to bet on that? I'll take you up on it. We can use http://longbets.org/

Surface Pro may yet be an unlikely hit - the reason - the Windows ecosystem is still king in business. Some classes of existing applications will be improved by just running them on a tablet, without any modifications required.

I don't really see them as competing with each other that directly... The Pro has more powerful hardware (and compatibility with legacy x86 applications), but is way pricier, heavier, and with less battery life. It seems pretty clearly aimed at businesses (as the name itself implies), whereas the RT is aimed at consumers. Certainly some people will choose one over the other, but there seems to me to be room for both in the marketplace.

Even if they had launched at the same time who is really going to buy a 2 pound tablet when you can get a $199 (soon $99) 7" tablet that weighs so much less? A regular laptop + cheap tablet killed the Surface Pro long before it had a chance to even go on sale. Microsoft was competing with the iPad 1 / MacBook Air -2 generations.

If you can find me a $99 tablet with an x86 processor then I am more than willing to buy a million of them, with cash. I don't think you really understand the premise of Surface Pro.

Have been using the Lumia 920 for 2 weeks now. It's the first phone since the original iPhone that I can't stop playing with -- details are just right across the board. It's light on apps but I don't use anything other than email, twitter, and RSS reader anyway. Video/Photos and screen are awesome. Scrolling is awesome. You should give one a try before declaring MS dead in mobile.

The question isn't "Is it good?". The question is "Is it selling?". What are the sales figures for windows on mobile?

I wouldn't mind giving it a shot next time I buy a phone, but most people I talked to seem to consider it a minus. Yeah, I know, anecdotes are not data, but from everything I read so far, sales are sluggish.

It's a pity. I want to see more than just Android and iOS.

I been using windows 8 for a while and it is definitely how the future will look like. It is really good on desktop and it is perfect on tablets. I don't have surface as I already have two ipads and kindle and it would be too much.

FYI I use OSX more then win and then it comes ubuntu, which is unfortunate for ubuntu. I am developer so I think I need to know all of them well to be effective.

I think Apple is making sure people voice their displeasure with win8 as it is genuinely ahead of OSX in both functionality and design. I can't tell for sure what will happen but I definitely would like to use something like win8 in the future. Also, by saying it is ahead, that doesn't mean it is flawless :), there is a ton of room for improvement.

I think Apple is making sure people voice their displeasure with win8 as it is genuinely ahead of OSX in both functionality and design.

It seems implausible that Apple would be behind the raft of bad reviews that Windows 8 has gotten, including the review from a professional UI testing company. I don't think Apple even wants to get Microsoft's market. After, Apple is premium vendor.

This.

I installed the beta preview and I've since upgrade win 7 to win 8 pro. My reaction, which I share to others, is that it's the first time I've used a computer and it felt like 2012.

There's plenty of room for improvement but they are getting a lot of things right, IMO. I would kill for the GUI formerly known as Metro on top of FreeBSD or Debian.

(I'm also a Mac user 90% of the time).

I think Apple is making sure people voice their displeasure with win8

That is one hell of a conspiracy theory. Got any evidence?

No but Apple is expert to sway the media to do what it wants. I mean, lately it's been releasing barely upgrades and it was covered with anticipation that no other groundbreaking technology got.

New windows is really good, I don't like that MS is copying Apple and making whole thing closed, kind was hoping things would go the way of the linux, not the way of the apple, but... So, it is not perfect, but it is very futuristic interface that works.

What I specially like is that they designed interface in such a way that it doesn't require insane graphics card just to get it to work well.

I think we all need a lot of options and dissapearance of any would hurt us big time.

That's evidence?

I also think we all need a lot of options and the disappearance of any will hurt us – UEFI Secure Boot is going to reduce the number of OS options, because it raises the price of being able to boot on generic PC hardware from $0 to $99. Many OS's will work together the way Fedora, SuSE, and Matthew Garrett are working together, so it may not cost each OS $99, but anything more than $0 is a loss.

One more thing why I think Win8 is good and works. My kids love it and didn't need a second to figure it out. They don't care about companies, they love ipad, so, this is very good sign in my view.

Which kind of makes me wonder about those people who can't figure it out :)

While OS X certainly needs some love and attention, and even iOS could use more than a fresh coat of paint, it's still practical and usable.

Windows 8 seems garish and over-complicated while, impossibly, being dumbed down to uselessness. Seeing video after video of people flail about with what should be routine tasks is amusing enough to watch, but probably no fun for an amateur.

I have no idea what IT departments will make of their business computers suddenly looking like an XBox, either.

As a programmer, I always want a powerful, open computer that I can do anything on. So it is taking a long time to dawn on me that the typical American (and I don't know enough about other cultures to speak of them) would much rather have a trendy, hip, portable iPad than a "full" computer. It's not like they're going to learn to program it or anything.

I'm sure this has been obvious for a long time to non-programmers who are observing, but I'm glad I'm at least becoming aware now.

You are missing the real reason iPads sell well. "trendy, hip" is only part of it. Easy to use and simple is a much bigger part, and arguably contributes to "trendy, hip" more than any sort of consumer gadget fashions.

Its not about trendy or hip (those are generally ways people insult mere mortals), it is about appliances versus computers. We can now build a device that does 95% of the things a PC does and is very easy to learn to use because of touch. PC's are devices of the twilight zone that require a priesthood to maintain and use. Never mind the rituals (always check your virus protection, watch out for e-mail attachments, reboot if it locks).

Get in most cars and they are automatics even though car lovers despise non-manuals. Gear heads still exist, but it gets harder now. Basic education opportunities have disappeared from most high schools. Look at the car ecosystem and see where computers are headed.

You seem to imply that iPads never lock up and never have to be rebooted. Not so.

They might need rebooting once in a while but the maintenance of an iPad is negligible compared to a proper pc.

I own a number of electronic devices - Galaxy Nexus, iPad (3rd gen), MacBook Pro, iMac, and a Windows desktop.

Surprisingly, the most unreliable (in terms of application crashes and weird issues that require a reboot of the device) is hands-down the iPad. I guess a few mitigating factors might be - app crashes are usually relatively easy to recover from, reboots fix most other problems, and viruses/malware (which have traditionally been vexing for many casual PC users) aren't an issue.

I'll supply a counter-anecdote... my iPad has never crashed nor needed a non-update reboot in the year I've had it, whereas my Galaxy Nexus is a continual source of reboots, dropped signals and general trouble :-)

Yeah, my Nexus is slowly overtaking my iPad in that department.

It is a little surprising to me that I appear to have far more negative experiences with iPads than is normal - I don't really do anything out of the ordinary or even push the limits of the device, and yet, I run into all sorts of consistent minor issues that seem to be indicative of software issues (especially with mobile Safari).

Don't get me wrong - I'm generally happy with the device, I'm just a little surprised at how flaky it is at times.

>the maintenance of an iPad is negligible compared to a proper pc

Oh, I agree with that. The iPad was a huge advance for people without the desire and inclination to spend a lot of time learning to maintain a computer.

Compared to a PC they are very easy to maintain - if they lock or reboot, it is a pretty easy recovery for the normal person. Amazingly, cable boxes and satellite tv has conditioned people to the "wonky appliance needs to be restarted" thing.

Programmer here (well, in a past career...) I have never really understood the appeal of hacking the machine you develop on. It's fun to develop for a PPC embedded board, or a fat multi-CPU multi-core machine, but I want my actual development machine as locked down and hard to break as possible, because that's what runs my Emacs, etc.

Until it gets so locked down it can't run Emacs, anyway.

Some people want to write novels, but others prefer to read them.

Some people love to cook, but most prefer to have dinner.

Some people live to fix their car, but most would rather use a garage.

I'm sure you're not as much an enthusiast about every aspect of your life as you are for programming.

Somewhere there's a chef expressing disgust that people use microwaves to cook their food rather than a proper gas range, but then again, it's not like they're going to learn how to cook properly with it anyway.

A large number of Americans want just want easy to use. But another large number have serious work they need a real PC to accomplish. But most of the who want PCs already have them whereas iPads are pretty new. Moreover, Microsoft seems to want to step on the useful part of PCs to bully their way into the tablet market.

So the PC is not going away but Microsoft could suffer a lot in the next few years. It's hard to weep for them, though.

And this was a huge factor in Steve Jobs' success - he understood the typical American better than almost any engineer.

As a programmer, I embrace the fact that people buy iPads or other tablets - by writing software for them and making money in the process. Why would I care what people use their devices for? For me(us) this is a fantastic oportunity - thanks to iPads and the like,more and more people have computers in their houses, which means that we can make new software to sell them. Wins all around :P

I bought windows 8 because of the cheap first day release price. I dislike it intensely.

I actually like it when I need to use it. Hitting the windows key and typing what I want is very useful and I find it more functional than what was in Windows 7. I don't really use Metro for much more than that, but on a desktop I don't really need to use it for anything else. The Desktop app runs great and is lighter than Windows 7, which was a really solid operating system.

Edit: Also, give some time for it, its app market and hardware designed for it to mature.

>Edit: Also, give some time for it, its app market and hardware designed for it to mature.

In other words, probably wait for Windows 9? =P

Well, I wouldn't put Win 8 and Vista on the same level, so I hope not. Sadly, that is a possibility.

It was a mistake to try to make one OS for both desktops and tablets. The form factors and usage styles are too different for a single OS to tackle well.

What you end up with is an unholy chimera of an OS that does neither well and the irony here is that everybody in the industry knew this.

Truth happens. Microsoft needed to listen but didn't.

Apple will have a unified OS for their notebooks, phones, and tablets in the near future. We'll all say how ingenious it was, and wonder why nobody ever tried it before.

Hasn't the OS X app store been a bit of a flop so far?

I think it's more about the path in which they have taken. Microsoft is trying to do it all at once in a last ditch effort. Apple on the other hand has evolved into this, planned or unplanned.

The graphical elements may look similar but Apple is smart enough to know that touch screens call for certain UIs/metaphors and that desktops call for others.

The UI metaphors that work for PCs don't necessarily make sense on touch screens and the ease of use tablets afford due to their "touchability" is what Steve Jobs promised when he heralded this as the Post-PC era.

Microsoft is simply not in a position to say "We agree with Apple". Doing so would betray Microsoft's current PC using customers.

So its hand was forced to merge tablets (which have been killing PC sales for 2 straight years quarter after quarter, something even MS can't afford to deny) and the PCs that have brought MS this far.

To make things worse MS made Metro which makes apps all look so similar that there is no way for developers to stand out driving some of them to other platforms.

http://www.riagenic.com/archives/889

The scene: a board room, the meeting is about to start.

Steve: Hey Jim, what's that?

Jim: This is a surface tablet.

Steve: Where's your laptop? We need to go over and edit our serious business documents, which we use for serious business. Tablets are toys. We don't want you playing angry birds in our serious business meeting!

Jim: I don't need it. This thing runs full Microsoft office.

Steve: Whaaaaaaaa...

I think everything will be fine. I see mine as less of a consumer tablet and more of a business one. I am looking forward to the full release of office 2013 (it comes with the preview release).

I hope eventually I will be able to compile small custom .net apps for it without going through the store.

"lowest price this year" is a completely arbitrary time range limitation.

True, but it is still a significant fact. "this year" means "in the past 11 months," which is a large enough time frame to be noteworthy.

It's been flat for investors for a decade.

im thinking of getting a Surface Pro as a laptop replacement

i find that i just use my laptop with docks now anyway..

linux guy here, microsoft is not disappearing anytime soon(sometimes i think sadly not), nor is windows8.

Windows 8 is quite successful believe it or not. Microsoft still owns the government. They can sell them whatever the hell they want.

Hybrid tablet/laptops(not talking about surface)? Windows 8 is the best OS to use in that case(it's really just two OS in one nothing more)

What about secureboot? Basically EFF has to beg Microsoft to give them permission to install linux on all those new windows ultrabooks.

I mean WTF, Microsoft going away? Hell, I wish that was the case!

Basically EFF has to beg Microsoft to give them permission to install linux on all those new windows ultrabooks.

This is actually very interesting- for those not following along already check out http://www.zdnet.com/linux-foundation-uefi-secure-boot-key-f...

Apple was there just a few days ago. Market is not perfect and far from rational.

Apple's stock trajectory over the last few years is nothing short of ridiculous, which is not the case of MSFT's stock.

That is because Microsoft had already had it's crazy growth in the 80s and 90s while Apple came out of it's death throes in the 2000s. Not to mention that MSFT gives dividends out to stockholders which keeps rewarding the shareholders and the stock price down.

Both AAPL and MSFT pay dividends with the yield being around 3.5% for MSFT and 2% for AAPL. Dividends seem to be a new post-Jobs thing for AAPL and may not continue into the future.

MSFT has been a whole other kind of ridiculous: As close to completely flat as you can manage given the turbulent financial markets for going on twelve years.

Adobe, Apple, Oracle, IBM, they've all completely eclipsed Microsoft in terms of stock performance. I'm not one to suggest stock price is everything, but it is an indicator as to how much faith people have, collectively, in the company.

When Apple was bottoming out they were in rough shape. Yes, they had billions in the bank and could've muddled along for another decade, and they never posted losses anywhere near what other companies at the time did, but they were a hurting unit.

Slumping market share, collapsing interest in their operating system, expensive research efforts coming up with nothing tangible to bring to market...

Sounds a lot like Microsoft, doesn't it?

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