"If this happened and then these other ten things happened and if for some reason people stopped buying office (but they aren't) and some folks did some other things (that there is no evidence of happening) then MS is doomed!"

Look, I'm as bearish on MS as they come (I think Microsoft's cultural and technical dominance of the personal computer is at and end) but this is a whole lot of crap in an article.

I think Microsoft as being the "only" choice for personal computing is over, which is a net positive. But there are still tons of businesses (the people that really pay Microsoft gobs of money) that are not switching off of Microsoft any time soon. I think Google will nibble off a bit of Microsoft's services for the small and medium business (who needs Exchange any more unless you have strict auditing requirements, which most SMB's don't) and Apple will make inroads, but iPads won't be replacing shitty $500 Dells any time soon (although I know IT departments would love virus-free completely locked down computers; it's been their "Holy Grail" forever).

MSFT has seen declining Windows revenue as a proportion of the total for a while and will still have rev in the many tens of billions if even half of MSFT's consumer market disappears.

I don't think MSFT will ever go out of business. It'll just be smaller and a lot less relevant.