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Comment by cdrnsf | Hacker News Reader

> The A.I. company’s advisers are pushing its chief executive, Sam Altman, to move slowly after SpaceX’s stock has been volatile and as the start-up grapples with financial challenges.

SpaceX's stock volatile? It's a shame nobody saw that coming.

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Yes, it's actually the first volatile high-profile IPO so you can see why some people need to be reminded of the possibility.

I didn't partake but from elon's shenanigans with bitcoin and doge (the coin, not the govt thing) it seemed clear he'd do similar with the stock

is tesla stock not volatile too? elon stock's are more like today's crypto than a 20th's century company stock w dividends

People have trouble pricing it because they do actual new engineering and don't spend time and money making the stock price wherever they want it. All the other F500s are owned by the same few companies and all the board members are the same.

Wall Street has never understood engineering. Eventually Tesla will pull a Boeing, GE, Ford, etc- lose the founder of founder's influence, get taken over by suits, and slowly die but hang on by playing the financial games.

> and slowly die but hang on by playing the financial games.

There have been plenty of those, like SpaceX buying Solar City bonds then when they were going to go bad he used Tesla to bail them out.

There's definitely been a lot of "creativity" in Musk's companies. I'm honestly a bit surprised that any could go public. I thought there'd be too many skeletons in the closet, but glad things worked out/weren't that bad.

Launched in the same way they launch Starship, full of ambition, promising a bit too much, but might explode at any moment. Either way it will be a spectacular show regardless of what happen.

It's actually remained about 14% or more above the IPO price which is roughly what you'd want but gone up and down a bit.

It's funny with stock prices - they all go up and down a bit in kind of random ways but people project all sorts of stories onto them that often don't relate much to reality.

It peaked at around +60% from IPO price and swung daily around 10-15%. It’s possible it’s starting to stabilize but that first week was basically the definition of volatile.

Just googling the ticker shows it at 149, which is below its opening.

> Just googling the ticker shows it at 149, which is below its opening.

I thought it opened at 135.

135 is what you could buy for in the public offering. The shares opened trading at 150.

> shame nobody saw that coming

Seeing something coming is very different from having it not only confirmed but also quantified.

Is it still being prematurely included in the major index funds?

Only the Nasdaq, which is an intentionally aggressive index. The S&P rejected all proposals.

yes, in few weeks.unfortunately the stock will be back from this slump

Ummm probably not. Lock ups are going to dump far more stock into the market.

But they are going to coincide lockups with the release of additional stock float from 5% up to 20% of the total "valuation" with a 3x QQQ multiplier so that stock indexes will treat them as 60% float even though 2/3rds of those shares are unavailable. Thus they guarantee that even more shares must be bought by tracking ETFs and institutional buyers. Everybody (that already owns pre-IPO shares) wins!

But that's not a secret, and therefore already priced in, right?

It's also a tiny effect given the total-market funds buy small amounts of each company, and the NASDAQ 100 isn't particularly big.

If S&P had changed its rules for the S&P 500, there would have been an effect. In the end, the drama was almost entirely a spectacle for finance influencers and their viewers.

QQQ is the largest of the Nasdaq100 tracking funds. It's only about 1%, increasing to 4% of the QQQ, which is ~$350B in size. So it's only $3.5B of forced buying or a little less that 5% (of $75B). For the second float would be and additional ~$14B, again about 5%.

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