Micron stock jumps 12% as memory crunch lead to quadrupling of revenue

It requires them to bet that:

1. This AI-driven demand cycle is a temporary blip

2. None of their competitors will make massive investments in capacity.

3. No state actors will do so despite evidence to the contrary.

Many in silicon have gone out of business due to the boom-bust cycles so being a bit conservative is appropriate but at some point not expanding production becomes an existential crisis.

Or ya know enough governments with the power get really angry and start forcing price controls, nationalizing, using their state spy agencies to steal your secrets, or use unofficial back channels to make your life extremely difficult.

On the bubble pop it's the feedback loop of investments to ROI materialising or not which will dictate if this stabilises in the current trajectory or if the bubble pops and massive investments will get written off (whoever is holding the bag can cry a river and won't be made whole).

But on that point for a team delivering value and demonstrating ROI I'm curious to see how many businesses fly through their roadmaps at whatever velocity and quality LLMs can deliver - and how does that translate to business growth. Are you achieving more in features and accelerating growth to the same 2 months instead of 12+? Or has the LLM spend just made 12+ months of "cost to build roadmap" into 2 months of staff + LLM costs anyway without profit to match??

Unless "other lines" go up as well, just compressing that increased cost without the benefits in revenue and growth, it'll still fail the ROI to keep paying the LLMs tax for these frontier labs to recoup their investment and then some...