I’d bet that there won’t be a RAM shortage for very long.
> It was only in 2025, as memory prices began an unprecedented surge, that the memory makers started to build new fabs targeted at HBM, all slated to start producing chips in 2027 or 2028.
If you want to argue that this is different from all previous RAM shortages, you can, but the burden of proof is on you to show the difference.
this time demand doesn't stop. there is an exponential demand for tokens.
[citation needed]
There is certainly economic pressure to create an exponential demand for tokens, but we've already seen a pullback from the costly "token maxing" companies were pushing last year.
It's also pretty unclear to what degree the RAM shortage is driven by inference (versus by training). We're rapidly approaching the point where frontier models are "good enough" for everyday use, are at some point we're going to hit diminishing returns on training new trillion-parameter models...