That seems like a very consequential point to include halfway through the post. They aren't wrong that Qwen 3.6 26B or Gemma 4 31B are quite good, depending on the use case, but if we're doing napkin math, I'd want some more headroom in the assumptions.
They really ought to have Qwen parameterize their post's calculations and add sliders so a reader could play around with the values.
Edit: And since they especially mentioned DeekSeek (or whatever), as far as I know, none of their current generation of models is a dense model, and even the smallest of the mixture of experts (MoE) models is 284B parameters (13B activated). That will completely incinerate their napkin.