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It seems ironic, that in the social media space, AT protocol based instances are basically centralised (Bluesky) and ActivityPub based instances (Fediverse, Mastodon) have a much healthier grade of federation.

Whereas in the "forges" space, it seems Tangled drives federation forward much faster than the ActivityPub-based federation features of Forgejo/Gitea (which are progressing really slow).

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That might just be your observation bias. I have not seen any Tangled instances in the wild.

The federation mechanism that will win will be the one that forgejo/gitea supports first.

Everybody is moving either to codeberg or more likely forgejo instance.

Forgejo already supports ActivityPub, albeit only for a minor use case (starring repos), so according to your definition, it's decided already.

I don't think thats so clear. The forges could support multiple federation systems and if for example someone made quality PR for the ATproto version that could get meged and adopted.

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