Next Year’s 3-D Printers Promise Big Things — Really Big Things
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Further they are fairly expensive and one of the main cost of producing a new model is the cost of producing molds in each shell size. The market is also large enough to justify significant investment but also very receptive too new boutique products.
(Any one with a 3d printer feel free to use this business idea so I can buy a pair and stop my feet from hurting.)
Granted, this all requires physics that aren't currently understood and may not even exist, and the amount of energy required would be staggering, but a true "anything replicator" would surpass the Star Trek vision into something that needed no "raw materials" at all except energy.
This is a technology designed to bring affordable, easy manufacturing to your bedroom, it's been around for years now, supposedly widely deployed. Yet hardly anyone alive today has handled or used a product printed on one of these machines?
From what i've read, the plastics suitable for printing do not easily make viable "hard wearing" products - although i understand various techniques can be used to improve this to some degree.
The raw materials used are not cheap and there doesn't appear to be much scope for future cost reduction. Perhaps more worrying is the limited option to reuse existing materials.
Until i start seeing and using products of 3D printing, colour me unconvinced. I'm sitting this revolution out.
It's a better small CNC machine* for inventors and hobbyists. As much as its proponents will claim there will be one in every home which you'll use to re-create broken pieces of appliances, tools, and equipment and how you'll be downloading specs left and right to print your own odds and ends - the fact of the matter is that at this point in time and for the near future, this is not a realistic option.
Price of the raw materials, time to creation (a whole day for small complex objects), price of the devices, cheap quality of the only affordable 3D printers (need constant adjustment, calibration, and repair), maintenance, etc. mean that it's another tool for the workshop and not a consumer electronic device like an office copy machine and especially not like your household printer or scanner
(* actually, CNCs are better, more reliable, cheaper to work with, etc. but this is 3D so...)
32 years ago, my best friends father bought his family an apple II+ (and novation applecat modem!). Well, that's a lie, he bought it for himself.
I think more than it being actually useful as a production device, I'm hoping that having direct access to one of these will instill in my kids the same sense of OMG this is magic, that I had as a kid.
Or, it might just collect dust like any number of other things in my home.
(Hmm, perhaps I could print some sort of dusting device...)
While "bedroom make anything" might be a ways off, it's being used now and will be used a lot in the not so distant future.
http://news.softpedia.com/newsImage/GE-to-Print-Fuel-Injecto...
http://www.businessinsider.com/ge-buys-3d-printing-company-t...
That doesn't appear to be true? They've announced they're intending to do it, they've bought a company specialised in it which suggests they're serious.
I can't order a 3d printed fuel injector for my jet engine today?
My point still stands. This is all just hype right now with nothing to show for it.
Another poster made a good point that it's a cheaper, more versatile, home-sized equiv of a CNC router / lathe. Looking at it like that makes a lot of sense to me.
It drastically limits the scope of such devices though from the current hype.
Also, the leading company, 3 d systems, did 90 million in revenue last quarter. Not Apple numbers, but not exactly "nothing to show for it."
As for the numbers, only to be expected in a hype game. To my mind in 10 years we'll look back and say 'do you remember 3D printers? How they were going to take over the world' sure there will likely be some design companies knocking out prototypes on them but Joe Punter won't have a 3D printer purchase on his shopping list this decade.
Think about something like the parts market for appliances and cars. Something out of date and broken? We don't necessarily have to just throw it in the trash. We can print a one off part to fix that old washer. Or car. Don't have that part in stock? No worries, we'll print one and have it ready this afternoon. Think about how amazing this could be for a company like autozone.
You don't have to have a replicator in your bedroom for this to be game changing. Sure there's plenty of hype, but the technology is getting to the point where it's warranted.
> What does that even mean?
Think dot com bubble, think real estate pre-2008, or more currently think zinga, Facebook, instagram. These things were MASSIVE before they died (or are about to die) a death. Most people didn't want to think they would fall as much or as badly as they did (or are about to) in the end.
They all share one thing, they're massively over hyped for the actual value they give. NB: that's not the same as saying they give no value. Each of the above have considerable merit, but nothing approaching their hype. History tells us the safest bet here is to cash out.
>> Think about something like the parts market for appliances and cars.
Let's say i'm an appliance manufacturer, or i'm a 3rd party parts manufacturer. Where is the benefit to me in any of this?
Will a 3D printer ever be cheaper or able to crank out volumes akin to my sub contracted production lines in China? I think we can safely say no.
3D printers are a niche, that's their value proposition. I can have an amateur knock out a part that's no longer made. The same way i can take a trip to a local metal worker with both parts of a rusted-in-half fender and say "hey, can you knock me up one of these for my 1963 jaguar e-type?"
3D printers will continue to be as relevant to Joe Punter as my local metal worker's English Wheeling Machine.