Wait, it's already past 10 thousand?
https://manifold.markets/CollectedOverSpread/when-will-rfc-1...
just wow, people seem to be having too much money it seems for them to bet over when RFC's are gonna get released.
This isn't even one of the worst offenders on prediction market or even comparable to it but I am just amazed (in a negative manner, surprised? its just strange) by the depth on what people actually bet on these markets.
Interesting thing actually. Seems similar to the trend in South Korea recently where you can online shop to get the thrill of shopping but you aren't actually paying with money.
But I am unsure of the overlap between manifold and polymarket/kalshi. I imagine that some might win in manifold and try to bet on polymarket to win "real" money which ends up being a bit gambling-esque.
But good for manifold for atleast not playing with real money but rather points like this. I would argue that Manifold might be better than polygon/kalshi in terms of net positive outcome of its existence for the world perhaps.
There is an overlap between Manifold and Polymarket/Kalshi. At the very least, Polymarket is more liquid, which creates opportunities for arbitrage and incentives for Manifold users to follow Polymarket. There is something at stake on Manifold itself if you choose to pursue it. There have been ways to convert mana to charitable donations (to your preferred charity), tickets to Manifest (the Manifold conference), and also merch and now prize drawings. Mana is like HN karma in that being at the top gives you status and bragging rights and suggests technical competence.
https://mailarchive.ietf.org/arch/msg/tools-discuss/EpoQcVt_...
RFC #s are issued sometime before publication, so they can come out out of order. I would expect 9999, 10001, etc. to show up eventually.
So of 10008 is the first one after 10000, that date is the one to bet on.
We do have humans brainstorming about such things, but this feels like something LLMs might be good at.