3D on 2D HTML Canvas
gyu.que.jp
gyu.que.jp
Quite impressive... does use up a fair bit of cpu and is still quite slow.... and doesn't work in IE7.
I think Flash still has many happy days ahead of it, but this is still rather cool.
For the record, it appears to be using a javascript version of Papervision, the fairly widespread 3D library for Flash.
There have been countless other plugins that have tried and failed to get critical mass, but Flash is the only one that's made it. Adobe Reader and Java are the nearest competitors and the install base is much lower.
Why? Initially - download size. For several years (while most people were still on dial-up) the Flash plugin was kept under 200K. Macromedia deliberately kept the plugin as small as possible so that it wasn't a burden to install it. They did internal testing where they artificially increased the size of the plugin and there was an immediate drop in download numbers. At some point as the size increased, the numbers would drop dramatically and they'd know that was the limit they had to work to when adding new features. Upgrades and installation was always kept as easy as possible.
They then cemented the install base with video playback that didn't act like it was stapled onto the browser. Prior to Flash with video, all the web based video options were clunky and almost completely closed to customization. Until there is an open standard for video playback, supported across all browsers, I think Flash will remain ubiquitous.
I can't see Silverlight taking over. It's not cross platform for a start. 3D isn't enough reason for people to install it and, other than Microsoft, no self respecting web site wants to risk alienating users by forcing an install.
Disclosure - I used to work for Macromedia. So I'll freely admit some bias!
Maybe they're waiting to implement Chrome in Linux first?
However, you can still see the effects of Canvas's stupid approach to rendering antialiased filled polygons.
Even on my relatively beefy comp, though, the miku animation was enough to get my fan going full blast. Papervision otoh has the potential to build a real, high-quality, 3d game. I don't see JS getting there any time soon, but nevertheless an interesting proof of concept.
Graphics-specific optimizations are probably going to happen, if by that you mean "fixing Canvas so it isn't painfully slow".
Does this mean Firefox is slow because of its Canvas implementation, and not the Javascript?
Flash is like GDI+ or Cairo for the Web. And it may extend to many other capabilities such as webcam, microphone, Argumented Reality, etc.
And RIA should get a nice authoring tool like Adobe Flash IDE or Flex.
Flash is not just graphics