A year ago, even 6 months ago, folks would have been still hypnotized by the hype and they would have pulled it off. Today too many people see a burning ship of cash and no moat to justify the burn. The story just isn’t there anymore.
The big AI IPOs this year will mark the high point in the bubble IMO, with retail FOMO ensuring that they pop like SpaceX has.
After that I expect them to crater, just like all those Spacs and Blockchain startups.
> Revenue: $13.07 billion
> Cost of Revenue: $7.5 billion
In other words generating tokens is actually a profitable business even for the frontier models. It's best to IPO when it's the case.
[0]: https://www.ft.com/content/e15b0d7e-ff6b-4f16-ba7a-4068feddb... [1]: https://www.wheresyoured.at/exclusive-openai-financials/
Your math is saying an apartment building is profitable because rent exceeds utilities and other direct expense but ignores the mortgage. Real estate run with that math goes bankrupt quite quickly and this is essentially the same problem Open AI has.
[0]: https://openai.com/index/accelerating-the-next-phase-ai/
I wish I could believe this but lighting giant stacks of cash on fire is, unfortunately, no longer a disqualifying event for tulip buyers.
I wouldn't bet they will have a successful IPO, but I also wouldn't bet they won't, it will be almost entirely vibes based at time of launch.