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I was at a major radiology conference recently and the radiologists kinda seemed to agree. (The interventional radiologists are a little less nervous, for now.)

Apparently 80% of FDA-approved AI "medical devices" (which covers software, not just hardware) are for radiology.

(https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/software-medical-device-...)

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This just underscores the point. Despite the advancement of "AI medical devices", the labor market numbers for radiology show Hinton was spectacularly incorrect.

If we had followed his advice we would be experiencing a major crisis in medicine today.

But is it a "he was wrong" scenario, or is it a "he wasn't quite right on the timing" bit, ala https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Burry ?

He is wrong by every conceivable measure. Not only was his timing wrong, where he specifically noted 10 years as the absolute maximum worst case scenario, but the trend has been accelerating in completely the opposite direction.

To his credit, he actually made a falsifiable prediction, unlike most folks that rely on infinite timelines so they never have to be accountable for their prognostications.

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