Mobile is a dud?
elusiveconsumer.wordpress.com
elusiveconsumer.wordpress.com
Unless you have some extremely strong connections (i.e. you have an ex telco exec on the board or as a CEO), stay clear of ALL closed platforms. (Incidentally, and that also includes Windows/MSOffice/Exchange etc).Startups need to be agile and startups have a higher chance of becoming successful if there are less barriers that you need to jump over, not more. This is why Internet is a perfect platform for startups... there are virtually no barriers (unless net-neutrality is defeated)!
See what I'm getting at?
The trend is clear -- the walled gardens are crumbling. Consumers in the future will get more freedom. Mobile data services are getting cheaper and faster. Phones are getting more capable.
The mobile services market is terribly immature (it's still the wild west, actually), but a dud? I think not.
My guess: Some day carriers will just be in charge of data pipe--and that's it. They probably won't even handle customer support on their own. Carriers are pretty good and making voice and data connections work, but not much else. And, much to their chagrin, there's no reason should be a part of the mobile services revenue stream any more than my ISP deserves a cut of iTunes revenue.
In their own words, "..the move of the enterprise to handheld devices was actually not forthcoming...Any minute now (we thought), there'll be millions of people begging for security on their handheld devices. It just wasn't happening. We were correct to change our strategy, since it still hasn't happened."
Has anyone considered the possibility that the cellphone might not be the glorious next step forward? Most tech evangelists, including myself, expect mobile devices to eventually diminish our reliance on the desktop. What if that actually never happens at the expected grandeur scale?
A friend of mine recently bought a Nokia 8800. It's an expensive phone, so I asked him what he used it for. His answer, "for phone calls and sms". It seems to me that mobile startups are pushing supply ahead of demand.
Steve Jobs has battled both the recording industry and the phone carriers and in both cases even _he_ has had to compromise a lot. Those massive entities seem about as geared towards innovation as banks.
Aren't we seeing this trend already? Considering this article was written last year. Nokia has already included the SIP stack in their series 60 phones. Motorola is also working on a SIP stack for their line up of phones as well. Doesn't this say anything? Hell the Motorola A910 has Wi-Fi connectivity therefore making the possibility of IP based communications a reality.
However, many startups underestimate the true intentions for these investments. For carriers, mobile media is an opportunity to get their foot in the door of content distribution. For media firms, it's a chance to amortize IP development costs and maximize returns by putting their franchise content on as many screens as possible.
For users, it generally means taking it up the backside.
Trust me. It's just not worth it.
2) The cell phone carriers turn off parts of the bluetooth spectrum to prevent people from downloading their own ringtones. This also prevents people from using your software if it needs bluetooth.
3) Cell phone carriers will never partner with you. At least not on terms that allow you to make a profit.
4) Even if one cell phone carrier partners with you, the rest won't.
5) Any software that takes advantage of the phone feature will drain the battery very fast. If you need to ping the cell tower ever five minutes, that means you have to recharge the phone every two hours. Which essentially means the phone is now worthless for making calls.
6) Most people don't know how to load software onto their cellphone, even if they were willing to pay for it.
7) Even if you can get some people using your software on their phone, to everyone else it will just look like they are sending text messages. If no one can see others using your software then it isn't viral and it won't spread.
8) Cell phones don't fit into the pockets of girls pants. (This is actually a serious problems)
9) There have been hundreds of entrepreneurs who have gone into mobile, and they have all failed. I can name two dozen companies that have tried to do social networking over cell phones. It's clearly something people want, but none have been able to release a decent product for the reasons above.
10) The next generation of WiFi will make probably make your product obsolete in two years anyway.
As for YCombinator, PG described it as being a difficult problem to solve, but noted that the job of a startup is to solve difficult problems. Certainly you can get rich solving a problem that's too hard for everyone else. But there are a lot of other problems with fairly easy answers, it's just that no one else has figured out that answer yet.
I'm not saying definitely don't do it, but certainly be aware of the issues. If your business manages to avoid these central issues, then maybe it's feasible. But if you're going to try to pull a Ulysses S. Grant style meat-grinder approach, then, well, good luck because you'll need it.
http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/03/09/demo-day-y-combinators-spring-chicks/
So I'm a bit curious that Paul posted something about mobile being a dud. Perhaps he thinks Tsumobi has a good answer to part of the problems with mobile?
I'm curious because I'm pretty interested in the mobile space, and, indeed, wrote something very similar to Tsumobi (Hecl), and was thrilled to see that ycombinator thought enough of the idea to fund it. (Ok, yeah, would be nice if someone funded me, but I never really pursued Hecl as a startup idea, but more as an open source platform).