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Comment by Havoc | Hacker News Reader

The deterrence could weaken but I suspect a single use of a nuke could (assuming it doesn't MAD) bring back deterrence by normalising use somewhat.

If you think about post hiroshima...I don't think anyone doubted the US was willing to wipe out cities

So not entirely convinced it's dead

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It’s conceivable that Russia could force the West to back out of the proxy war. But then they’d get proliferation in Europe, Taiwan, South Korea, and other places. And Usrael would very likely use nukes against Iranian missile cities. (Conversely, first use against Iran would give Russia license etc.) Apart from general global instability and uncertainty this might unleash.

So, it’s not hard to see why they haven’t—so far. And why they are pursuing their (slow and costly, sure) conventional military, economical, and demographic long-term neutering of Ukraine. And let’s not forget the enormous economic/budgetary cost to the EU.

Also, Russia retains a number of ways to escalate inside of Ukraine: bridges, dams, depopulation of frontline cities. China could finally abandon their stance of being mostly neutral.

The problem is that Ukraine/West keep escalating and the day when Russia’s calculus changes may yet come.

Since when has Ukraine's defense against the russian invasion been a "proxy war"? Your very first sentence destroyed any credibility the rest of your comment had (not that there was much worth reading anyway).

> The country that’s getting 55% of its state budget from the EU isn’t a proxy. Not to mention the munitions, the weapons, the training, and above all the access to the US’ trillion dollar ISR and satcom network.

Spade? That’s a shovel drenched in blood.

If the Kremlin calculated that European countries would just back off it was a very bad call indeed. Any reasonable leadership would have cut their losses yet here we are.

> Any reasonable leadership would have cut their losses yet here we are.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HKxeuY7bMAEwZ30.png Indeed.

If Ukraine stops defending, it will cease to exist. russia can stop its invasion any time it wants to.

Big difference.

Self-fulfilling prophecies need prophets.

> The problem is that Ukraine/West keep escalating (..)

Damn those .ru trolls are everywhere.

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