China is different. The CCP will rule forever, no matter how terrible the things they do. No one is allowed to criticize the government. Xi is like Voldemort—no one can say his name, let alone criticize him.
China does worse on those fronts, but they do so predictably. I don’t agree with many of their goals, but you can generally rely on them pursuing those goals in a manner consistent with their values. Ie I’m not often taken aback by how they respond, it’s within the realm of things I’d expect.
The US is concerning because their behavior is wildly unpredictable, which makes them unreliable even if their values align better with mine (purportedly, anyways). I have no idea when or if Fable will be back, or what kind of modifications the government will demand, or if this will apply to other models, and whether any of that is going to impact Anthropics or OpenAIs ability to release models.
I was already wary of Claude Code and Codex because I don’t like being tied to a provider-specific tool (I don’t trust they won’t cut off swapping the API URL), and now that’s even worse because I’m not even sure either will stay at the front of the pack. I’m sure as hell not using a vendor locked tool tied to the 5th best model provider (if they fall).
If China, or Chinese companies, end up with a monopoly-like advantage in AI, the result will be like the current rare-earth situation. China will absolutely put strict controls on AI models, and that would be much worse than depending on OpenAI or Claude.