Comment by SilverElfin | Hacker News Reader

Comment by SilverElfin | Hacker News Reader

Remember that xAI acquired Twitter/X, a failing overvalued business. And then SpaceX acquired xAI for a highly dubious $250 billion even though they’re irrelevant in AI. And today SpaceX’s president talked about merging with Tesla (https://techcrunch.com/2026/06/12/spacex-president-gwynne-sh...), another weakening business.

It seems like a shell game if being played where one company is used to bail out the investors of other companies. With all this merging, shouldn’t there be a case for breaking up SpaceX and not having it become some overly large conglomerate? How are all these dubious moves being blessed by boards of these companies - are they corrupt and stacked with Elon’s friends?

And what of the pay structure Musk has. Will a merger with Tesla trigger its conditions in a dishonest way?

Ultimately, SpaceX is WAY overvalued. Morningstar valued them at roughly half of the IPO price they were seeking (https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/spacex-what-investors-nee...). This spike does not make sense, and people will likely get burned at some point. But Musk will become a trillionaire.

> roughly half of the IPO price they were seeking

That's already very high. Their profitable businesses are (1) Starlink and (2) Launching satellites. Starlink is growing revenue at maybe 50%, and revenue for launching satellites is growing maybe 10% annually.

But Goldman Sachs, which is leading the IPO process is telling investors that it expected SpaceX’s total revenue to reach $474 billion in 2030, up from $18.7 billion last year. That's 25x growth of revenue in just 4 years.

I have read the Google deal makes xAI profitable. In the short term, anyway.

xAI failed to produce a frontier model. They got involved into nudifying and other questionable activities as well. People started leaving in droves: https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/elon-musk/xai-musk-addresses-wa...

xAI is a failed company, as is X. Their merger into SpaceX is basically a scam. Elon Musk justified this by saying he is going to send xAI servers into space using SpaceX. This is an unproven idea, not ready for investing.

What I was trying to point out is xAI has a lot of data center capacity and is making bank renting it to other companies.

Sure, but renting out data center capacity is not that lucrative. You get 15% markup that's all.

15% of a billion dollars is a lot of money.

It is low-margin business, does not explain their 1.8T valuation.

That may be true, but it's the farthest thing from a "failed company", even if you assume Grok never gains a market foothold. I don't know why you would assume that, though.

To be clear, companies are valued at whatever people are willing to pay for stocks. Their real financial performance is, as far as I can tell, completely detached from stock price in any real physical form. The only thing that matters is what investors are willing to pay. If that’s true (which it is, right), the stock market is basically just gambling. At which point, rationally, the SpaceX IPO makes sense.

Twitter isn't failing. It makes a little bit some quarters and loses a little bit other quarters.

Don't forget that Tesla bought SolarCity to bail out Musk's cousins. I need a chart of all his mergers.

Michael Burry made this chart to track just the Nvidia - SpaceX relationship:

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/michael-bu...

Elons wealth is entirely in his companies. His worth is what people estimate his shell game is worth. There isnt really an option where Elon can pull the full value out of the company and walk away.

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