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Comment by SXX | Hacker News Reader

You never know what inflation gonna be in futute. In some countries that turned into autocracies with strong and long standing leaders who love traditional values and religion inflation can easily be 30-70% a year.

Then not only 4.3T reachable, but even 43T.

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This is true. We just need to bank on a total economic collapse and all of our SpaceX valuation fantasies can come true.

You'll be surprised how not total economic collapse it is. Population will become poor, but it only good for the strong leader since they wont have time to bother about all this politics stuff.

And country can still run like that for decades. Also get rids you from all the debt since you can easily just pay it all by printing more money.

> Donald Trump said “I love the inflation” after new data showed that inflation jumped to an annual rate of 4.2% in May, the third consecutive monthly increase since the start of the Iran war and a three-year high.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/jun/10/inflation-r...

You may be on to something...

I try to be skeptical about quotes, especially when they affirm my preconceptions. So here's the surrounding material:

“You know what I really love? I love the inflation. You know why? Because as soon as this war is over, you know I can say it now ... you know we’ve been taking out millions of barrels of oil. Nobody knows it. You know who doesn’t know about it? Iran, until right now.”

OK then.

I don't even, I can't, what?

at that inflation rate the US dollar would lose its reserve currency status so I doubt it

at some point interest rates should reach double digits like in the 70s following oil crisis

the only crazy scenario for spaceX is it does space exploration/mining and finds something extremely exotic or valuable and sought after.

I get the feeling that in 5yrs or so if China makes the yuan free-floating it will be more of a reserve currency.

All spaceX has to do is keep being as innovative and industrious as it is now, in the physical world as all other companies are getting very lazy or just working on software. Eventually it'll probably go the way of GE because humans are humans, but I think we have a few decades until more compelling places to work come up.

> All spaceX has to do is keep being as innovative and industrious as it is now

SpaceX seemed to lose a big step when Musk got involved in DOGE. I don't know if key people left or what, but the pace seem to slow considerably, and the successes also seemed to come to a crashing halt.

Some principled people left when he made his big heel turn into openly promoting ethnonationalist authoritarianism.

Pretty sure some other principled people stayed behind and are using the field manual[1].

[1] https://gutenberg.org/ebooks/26184

This kind of thing has happened at Meta.

This take is so exhausting, why do you refuse to do even a little bit of open-minded research or even not immediately resort to hyperbole?

Based on what? Most people moved to Starbase if you're tracking the hawthorne and redmond activity

Reserve currency status is already doomed it's a matter of when not if

It’s always been a matter of when.

People have been saying this for decades now. In 1999 the dollar was ~55% of the global foreign exchange reserves. In Q4 of 2025 it was at ~56%.

https://en.macromicro.me/collections/23654/dedollarization/1...

People have been right for decades

In the sense that all things end, sure. But for the forseeable future the dollar will be the world's reserve currency because 1) the US economy is still the biggest, and furthermore we have a big trade deficit and 2) the dollar is still the least worst currency out there.

4.3T could be the cost of a dozen of eggs by 2040.

China launched a direct competitor on June 2nd

"China launches debut mission of Falcon 9-like rocket with no advance notice" https://www.space.com/space-exploration/launches-spacecraft/...

Spacex is going to get rekt, China has all the materials and workforce

> Spacex is going to get rekt, China has all the materials and workforce

According to their brief, most of the revenue is going to come from AI!

The rockets are apparently just "minor" now.

That must be a mistake, revenue isn't the word for the money you're going to throw in the furnace.

Well, SpaceX is supposed to be more about AI than low cost orbital launches. At least that’s what their roadshow is claiming.

But either way, yeah, I’m not willing to bet much money on USD4.3T unless we can get some serious financial engineering, (read “circular deals”), going.

We've seen through Tesla that software, government regulation, and to a smaller degree build quality are the only moats against China that still currently hold.

Tesla build quality? Early Chinese EV's were a joke, but Tesla's aren't exactly built reliably either

Once you learn how to spot their misaligned panels it becomes impossible not to

I've owned older USA made cars so a little panel alignment doesn't bug me. I like the lack of beer bottles stashed in the doors, missing screws, welds from the obviously inebriated, etc.

China has multiple reusable rocket programs, the reuse will become key to driving down costs.

yeah, and it will slice $T off of spacex easily

This comment is very clearly an exaggeration even if there is a grain of truth to it. You should consider addressing the fact that there can be multiple "leaders" at any given time, and geopolitical boundaries can shape those leaders.

It's possible SpaceX will get "rekt", but the US has decades of experience and manufacturing processes set up for aerospace, as well as established customers. As long as SpaceX doesn't become heavily unionized I suspect they'll be able to compete strongly with anything China develops.

Perhaps at least wait until Long March proves to be recyclable/reuseable before you call it a direct competitor.

Who's going to buy launch services from CASC besides Chinese companies? Serious question, I don't have an answer in mind.

Sorry, but I'm not pricing a stock today based on the assumption that this country will turn into a theocratic autocracy with a 70% YoY inflation rate for 15 years.

Besides, if I was pricing that in, I'd be buying indexes and not a specific stock. The 70% YoY inflation would rise all tides. Not just SpaceX.

Will? It already has turned into one.

Isn't SpaceX uniquely in the position to benefit from that kind of government?

Nothing the GP said makes SpaceX a better stock. It would just make the promise technically true in a way that doesn't benefit any investor.

Or, in other words, it's a joke.

But these insane valuations are leading the tide-rising. This is one instrument in inflation because it's "creating" this money from nothing. All the employees that got a $5k bonus 5yrs ago will see it rise to $50k (or more) out of thin air (crazy financial mechanisms).

If inflation is really that high I'm buying hard assets that won't depreciate. Sure I will need some cash, but gold bars in my personal safe suddenly are a great investment (gold is generally a terrible investment, but when inflation is the main concern is is really good)

Until SpaceX finds that golden asteroid.

True believers will leverage themselves all the way to the moon by selling gold calls so they can buy more SpaceX calls.

If all the AI / robotics dreams come true and productivity increases a lot, it'll cause deflationary pressure, which must be balanced with money printing to keep inflation up at 2%. Increased productivity is never allowed to result in cheaper products. For example, CPI deflation 20% -> money printing 22% equals 2% total CPI inflation. Asset prices track the real inflation i.e. they rise by 22%.

Solid argument to get into the IPO asap. /s

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