Providers, not insurers, are responsible for excess U.S. health care cost (2024)
noahpinion.blog
noahpinion.blog
This guy is way out of his depth.
[1] https://www.rand.org/pubs/external_publications/EP71133.html
He does that a lot, tbf
And, of course, things like spurious denials drive up costs for them and for the providers. More direct costs, more costs at the provider they have to cover...
From the insurance company perspective, it's a win-win!
Spurious denials? Or improperly filed claims?
It's easy to find documentation of this. For example:
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10391242/
https://phrma.org/blog/70-denied-how-insurance-denials-are-d...
https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen/2026/05/04/independ...
Anecdote is not the singular of data, but when my late wife was dying of cancer, the oncologist was attempting to follow standard care procedures. Preauthorizations were denied even after physician consultation with the insurance company.
My research showed me that the insurance companies contract with other companies (who they may or may not own) to handle the dirty work. It was only after learning the magic incantations to directly contact the "third-party" company that I was able to get traction.
"We do not believe this treatment is warranted."
"Well, her doctor believes it, so she's going to get the treatment. The only question is whether you pay now, or after I file a small claims case."
It was miraculously authorized at that point. It's the same fucking thing with car insurance. The poor people who can't fight really get screwed.
Medical fraud is like retail stock shrinkage or fraudulent credit card charges -- no one on the customer side is aware of it, because it's handled on the other side and baked into pricing.
But there are substantial amounts of both straight fraud and too aggressively up-coding / over-billing.
The meta problem is that the because of the nature of the industry (legitimate volume dwarfs fraud), it's more financially impactful to pull levers that impact legitimate volume (read: prior auth requirements).
The anti-fraud systems are also pretty robust. As you'd imagine, insurers have been dealing with this for more than a few decades by now.
"Over a six-year period between 2019 and 2025, almost half of a large set of denied health insurance claims in New York state were reversed when the cases reached independent review organizations, comprised of clinicians unaffiliated with insurers"
But that doesn't get into the reasons why the claims were denied in the first place. It doesn't tell us anything about bona fide spurious denials vs. improperly filed claims (mistakes in the paperwork), clerical errors, or clients placed under investigation for claiming too early (after applying) or too often (making a lot of spurious claims), or care providers who do the same.
Insurance companies are concerned with adverse selection and moral hazard. A client who files a lot of claims shortly after getting insurance raises the suspicion that they were not honest about their health prior to applying. Similarly, a client who claims every drug a pharmacy carries raises other suspicions.
Of course, most clients aren't like that, but a not-insignificant minority are, and a small number of clients can file a very large number of claims.
The first link in that article does. It starts off by noting that this the third level review, so there were ample chances for the insurance company itself to fix things, and also says that "The report also showed that 47.1% of denials on the basis of medical necessity, 44% of denials based on care determined to be experimental or investigational, and 42.9% of formulary denials were overturned."
It's a pipe dream to assume that, by the time the appeals got to that point, it could be chalked up to administrative error.
> Insurance companies are concerned with adverse selection and moral hazard. A client who files a lot of claims shortly after getting insurance raises the suspicion that they were not honest about their health prior to applying. Similarly, a client who claims every drug a pharmacy carries raises other suspicions.
Yes, every Canadian gets 5 abortions a year, even the men. But seriously, the moral hazard goes the other way. It is so fucking difficult to get doctor appointments that the insurance companies should be doing everything in their power to help keep people healthy, rather than worrying about the 0.1% of the population that suffers from Munchausen syndrome.
This often proceeds over multiple rounds. And then either the company eventually pays, or the consumer has to pay and try to get reimbursed later.
You asked this question 30 minutes after even a casual reading of my other comment, and a little thinking about it, would have fully answered it.
I would like to assume good faith, but your other comments indicate a high probability that you are an insurance company shill.
And in response to your other question about collusion, no there doesn't have to be collusion. Insurance companies putting onerous bogus requirements on providers will automatically drive up the costs.
You can consider my mistake to be in conceptualizing the cost of "medical services" too narrowly, as just the medicine, and not the providers' surrounding administration. To that end I take your point. In theory, at least. Do you know how much this has? In particular, you refer to the back-and forth negotiation of claims--on what do you base this claim?
Be offended all you want. It's a free country, but, to be perfectly frank, you are still making it difficult to believe you are writing in good faith, as I will show.
> You can consider my mistake to be in conceptualizing the cost of "medical services" too narrowly, as just the medicine, and not the providers' surrounding administration.
Which is fine, except that my very first comment that you responded to explicitly explained "More direct costs, more costs at the provider they have to cover..."
So I already explained that which you said you missed, before your first comment questioning it.
> Do you know how much this has? In particular, you refer to the back-and forth negotiation of claims--on what do you base this claim?
When I wrote "You asked this question 30 minutes after even a casual reading of my other comment, and a little thinking about it, would have fully answered it." I was serious.
You still asking this question, instead of looking at that comment, indicates that at best you are completely unserious. For your edification, here is a link to that comment:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48480873
When you wrote your first comment in reply to mine, there were already two comments there -- that one and its very short parent.
Why? Obvious if you know about the perverse incentive tqi mentions
$25k today or $15k/yr for 20 years?
Gastric bypass surgery happens once. Many bypass patients require lifelong prescription nutritional supplements and all require lifelong lab monitoring.
Ulcer risks increase severalfold.
High risk of hernias, osteoporosis and complications thereof.
It's not just surgery and no immediate cost. But then again, any of those issues are options for denial, so...
I had an ACA "marketplace" plan back for my family back in 2017 when I was self-employed. My premiums were >$15K / year for a >$10K deductible and no tax credits (because of my income).
1. On average, how healthy is your group of ACA plan holders? If the group has a bunch of chronic conditions, they get more subsidy money to offset the increased care costs. Going to the PCP allows them to have official medical evidence of those conditions.
2. The government gives these plans quality ratings to help people compare them to each other. These ratings are partially based on how often patients get their annual screenings and patient satisfaction. A gift card for a PCP visit accomplishes both aims.
There are also more practical concerns. Preventative care is cheaper than an acute incident for the company. You'd rather catch an arrhythmia at a PCP appointment than pay for the cost of a heart attack.
On your specific example, my understanding is that the odds are very low that a random PCP visit will detect an arrhythmia.
Of course, if you mentioned to doc that you're having fainty spells or heart palpitations, then maybe hen'll give you a holter monitor-- but then you've now increased your risk by waiting for the PCP visit instead of doing it when you first notice the symptoms.
It's literally Noah Smith, what did you expect?
Law binds individual fictions, but not compound ones. Until we start making financial engineering basically illegal, these types of "happy, profit juicing conjunctions" will be the norm.
"Perversely, with the MLR requirement capping profit margins and administrative costs, insurers are discouraged from containing health plans’ premium increases. Economists have noted that the MLR requirement effectively turns health insurers into “cost-plus” businesses: If insurers’ predicted premiums are less than the actual medical care spending on claims, it can lead to higher MLRs and less profits, within MLR restrictions. Professor Scott Harrington warned early on that MLR requirements could reduce insurers’ motivation to control premium increases. Prior research has found that the MLR requirement is associated with stronger financial performance for insurers, since they can raise premiums to cover higher claims and still comply with the MLR threshold."
From the graphic the insurers take in $371.6b and pay out $241.9b in medical services costs.
That’s $130b on a pointless activity that uses up physical resources that would be better deployed elsewhere in the economy.
Healthcare needs to be provided as a matter of course, and “competition” won’t improve it or control it because there is always a supply side shortage of provision.
That’s a difficult problem to solve, but solving it by forcing a huge bill on expectant mothers and cancer victims, etc in a futile attempt to control demand is not the way.
Which is why the rest of the world charts a different path.
It seems like the core problems with US "system" come from having a "shadow" socialized system (by way of EMTALA[0]) that offloads costs onto the "free market" (read: patients or insurers who can pay) and a shocking inability to have a mature public conversation about how care will be rationed. (That conversation still happens but it's between providers and insurers and not subject to public scrutiny.)
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emergency_Medical_Treatment_an...
Free market usefully means both sides can choose to participate in transactions which means price is how they do that. It is a useful concept but it doesn't cover everything, like what you mentioned and things like if emergency patients are shopping around hospitals or if the average consumer is capable of being well informed in such a market.
The biggest buyer is the Federal government and by law they are required to get the best deal, the government also restricts the supply of providers. It’s not a capitalist system at all. It’s a weird hybrid command economy with a consolidating cartel of providers and administrators.
No, it's much worse than that. How much time and money is spent by medical providers dealing with the billing?
Arguably at least twice as much -- the insurers have economy of scale that providers can't match.
And that's before you even get to the direct time and stress impacts on the consumer from bullshit denials.
Just go look for the local debate in any country with government healthcare and look for the parties who are pushing for change and their complaints.
Then ask yourself if you really would want the current administration in charge of your healthcare... if you'd like every four years to be a coin toss for how your healthcare was going to be for the next four years.
People arguing for public health care, are you ready to say you want Donald Trump to be in charge of your health insurance instead of a private provider? (because we're not in a magical fairy land where government is efficient and agrees with everybody's priorities)
And I want to win the lottery, marry a princess, and for my childhood dog to come back to life.
We all want things.
When we're advocating for government changes we need to be realistic and make good choices. Right now throwing an enormous amount of power at a dysfunctional government (public health care) is an insane bid completely disconnected from reality.
We need people to care about the basic functionality of government and for it's various pieces to do their duty. They aren't, so maybe let's shelve the idea of handing over control of our healthcare to them until they can deal with their cowardice in front of an aspirational king.
You DO have healthcare choices now. Consider the healthcare option provided when accepting a job is on the table, provide feedback to your employer about their chosen provider (i.e. say NO to United Healthcare). Even though it involves big life choices with private healthcare there ARE options on the table instead of what the electorate chooses every 2/4/6 years.
And people are pretty misguided. The typical HN crowd person would STILL HAVE private health insurance on top of the public care in almost any country today that has the public option. The public option is bad, slow, and has a habit of denying care. You'd be rich, you'd still want better care than what was available for free.
A public health care system should be independent of politics. Unfortunately, as the latest administration has shown, even if you designed it to be independent, such as the CFPB, it doesn't matter with an autocrat in charge. On the other hand, private industry does not have all that good a reputation for not effing with your healthcare.
I propose allowing buy into medicare at 5 years before regular eligibility. And a long phase in of lowering the eligibility age. Drop it by 6 months every year for 10 years, then 1 year every year for 10 years, then 2 years every year until everyone with work credits is eligible.
At the same time, start covering all kids up to some age with Medicaid (after all, kids tend to have no income, so if eligibility was based on their own income instead of household income, they'd qualify). First year, kids get covered until 6 months, next year until 1 year, etc.
When the Medicare and Medicaid ages meet, we have universal health care. It would take a long time to get there on my schedule, but it would be gradual, so everyone could adapt. And if future legislation could adjust the timeline as needed.
Also, clearly someone needs to add more residency slots.
Do you want Donald Trump to be in charge of public healthcare? Please stop suggesting we make all of those changes unless you're willing to say you want him to be in charge of it.
(You are, of course, free to be as myopic as you wish -- just as everyone else is.)
The dam may well be broken, Congress has proven to be full of cowards and the next aspirational autocrat might well win and do better.
I'll acknowledge he's playing games with Medicaid eligibility, but is he messing with the administration of care?
"Senate Veterans’ Affairs Committee Ranking Member Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) today released a comprehensive report detailing the harm and impacts of the Trump Administration’s draconian directives and cuts on veterans. The report, Breaking the Pact: Impacts of Trump, DOGE, and Doug Collins’ Ongoing Assault on Veterans, was released ahead of the Committee’s oversight hearing with Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) Secretary Doug Collins next week.
Blumenthal’s report reveals historic staffing losses at the Department resulting in dire workforce shortages, increasing wait times for life-saving mental health care, and veterans’ care and benefits being put at risk as a direct result of the Trump Administration’s harmful policies. The Committee report—compiled from extensive reporting, firsthand accounts, and ongoing conversations with veterans and VA employees across the nation—details the Administration’s systemic assault on VA over the past year and the tangible impacts its cuts are having on veterans."
https://www.veterans.senate.gov/2026/1/cuts-cover-ups-chaos-...
Also, having a baseline of public care and then private as an option on top doesn't sound like the boogeyman this is pitching it as to me. That seems like a great way to reduce the scope of what the state needs to be in charge of.
If the take is that government cannot possibly work for the people no matter what then yeah, all policy is bad.
Why is there always a supply-side shortage?
The AMA was concerned in the 90s re: "oversupply" of doctors and the impact on doctor salaries, lobbied the Republicans (around the "Contract with America" timeframe) and got language limiting NIH-funded residency slots codified.
The AMA is backpedaling on that stance now but the damage is already done.
There's only so many doctors, only so many MRI machines, so many valve stents, so many syringes.
Everything on earth is supply constrained.
Overall, there are lots of nitpicks with this article but my personal takeaway is: if this is the best defense people can make for the US medical insurance system then that shows how bad it really is.
Point 4 of an article[1] about health delivery is quoted below:
>>Perhaps the most underappreciated transformation of the past 40 years is the corporate consolidation and financialization of medicine. Care delivery—once local and community-based—is now dominated by corporations.
>>Vertical consolidation is now a defining feature of American health care. UnitedHealth Group isn’t just the largest insurer; it’s also the largest employer of physicians and the largest operator of home health and hospice agencies. CVS Health, the largest pharmacy chain, also owns the biggest pharmacy benefit managers—and now giant insurer, Aetna. McKesson, a pharmaceutical distributor, now operates the nation’s largest chain of oncology practices and is rapidly expanding into other specialties. These combinations raise all the conflicts of interest you’d expect—higher prices, business steered away from independent providers and pharmacies, gaming regulations, and more.
[1] https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/aca-health-ca...
This is twice what the same role pays in most European countries. Unless she is well below that range for some reason, she is likely overpaid.
Everybody in healthcare, from the nurses to the hospital CEOs, makes far far more in the US than they would in a country with socialized medicine.
The article mentions one example of this, which is that part of "provider costs" is actually paying for the provider to wrangle with the insurer. But even apart from such direct costs, the care is distorted in various ways in order to comply with the insurer's whims. One you hear about a lot is doctors ordering tests that likely aren't really necessary, simply to avoid having the insurer deny something later because they didn't go through all the required motions.
Another reason that "profit margin" is grossly inadequate as a measure of cost or inefficiency is that it doesn't count the actual "work" done by the companies, even though a lot of it simply doesn't need to be done. There are thousands of people with jobs in insurance companies that simply do not need to exist because most of what the industry does simply doesn't need to be done. The leeching is not just a matter of shareholder returns or executive salaries. All the salaries of everyone working for insurance companies are a form of waste. (Okay, probably not all, since even with a saner system some bookkeeping would need to be done, so if you look at the net difference it's not a total waste. But it's more than just shareholders and executives.)
Oh, no, people stopped having children. Whatever could be the reason.
And yet it still exists in the rest of the world. But people tend to think of it only as for rich people as opposed to covering things the rest of the world ignore. I'm not saying the US is perfect, but having lived under both kinds of healthcare, cost and quality are two reasons I'm in the US.
I pay the maximum possible in Germany for my health insurance and from what I understand I still pay less for healthcare than I would in the US.
Even if you have slightly more wait time, the cost is still way lower. Unless you have a US employer that pays the whole insurance for you (I don’t know if that’s possible)
As for US employers paying for everything... yes it's common. It used to be that they'd just cover everything via a 'PPO' plan with minimal 'co-pays'. Usually you'd pay $5-15 for a GP, ~$50 for urgent care, and ~$100 for an ER visit.
These days, many have switched to a 'High Deductible' plan, where the insurance comes with a 'max out-of-pocket'. After you've paid that amount, then everything is fully covered, but nothing is covered until you hit the deductible.
My current company has this plan, but puts the entire 'max out of pocket' value in what's called an 'HSA' (healthcare savings account). This money grows tax free and will eventually turn into a retirement account. So, if you have no health issues, then this becomes a free income stream. If you do have health issues, then you just spend this money every year and then insurance takes over and pays for the rest. This is common in the tech world these days... not sure about other industries TBH.
Hmm, I think it's better to use a percentage than a fuzzy word like "common":
https://www.kff.org/health-costs/health-policy-101-employer-...
Figure 8
12% of covered single workers and 3% for families have the employer cover their premiums in full
When you have to pay a co-pay it is 5€ per prescription. You don’t pay for generalists, and do not pay for specialists if you get a recommendation from a generalist first.
There is no deductible.
Not everything is covered though, dental care often has limited coverage (only for the most basic services), so you end up paying yourself.
I never heard of a healthcare saving account, that’s an interesting and strange concept
That might be true to your specific location and set up, but I have some experience and family in healthcare, both in the US and outside of it, and it is definitely not like that for much of the US.
When looking at comparative data, I think it’s worth breaking it down a bit by socio status, for example. In complex systems with a wide spread averages can be misleading. My impression is that we are not seeing the whole story.
What kind of Northern Exposure bullshit is this?
No. Canada was 4 figures a month with a wait time of at least a year for one service.
> Or are you saying it is cheaper in the US?
It was 100% free in the US. With no wait time. For all the services needed.
> If the latter, could you be more specific?
Autism care for children.
I want to be very clear: We received more care and assistance in the two weeks prior to moving to the US than the entire time we were seeking help for our children in Canada (they are Canadian, as is my wife). Canada was at best abusive to my children.
My wife was told by a member of the medical establishment to put one of our autistic children in a home and to forget about him.
I would dearly love to know what "costs" of healthcare you are looking at when you say the US is preferable enough to actually move to/be in/stay in the US.
Because when I can have higher end insurance from my employer, and still be out $9K for a kidney stone after insurance, I'm not seeing it. That is an outlier, for me, I'll acknowledge, but it's still nearly five digits that had to come out of my pocket after my employer paid thousands, I paid premiums, for insurance (that is insurance-in-name-only).
Autism care for children. I'm looking at $15-30k a year for a service such as speech therapy. Minimum of 6-month wait time.
US? Free. Wait time? Immediate (not hyperbole).
We routinely keep track of this. It has not improved at all.
Blue states > Red states 100% of the time. Though, even within those states, you have to move. But, that's not unexpected. In Canada, it didn't matter where you moved. We looked. And then I didn't even get into how horrible Quebec is specifically with regard to taking care of its children.
The most efficient medical experiences I have had have both been ones where there were no insurance involved:
1. A USCIS surgeon, that was like 80 years old, running his own office, everything via check, on paper. Guy put more patients through per day then the big hospital systems special immigrant medical services did.
2. A specialized Eye Surgeon who did my wife's ICL eye surgery (which insurance wont cover). Ended up being the most efficient practice I've seen, every follow up and pre-surgery meeting was not separately billed. Just the surgery was. Eye Doctors / Surgeon spent a ton of time with you. And they had massive amounts of flexibility. But even the out of pocket surgery was probably less than an insurance covered surgery at a hospital.
A 22% decrease and a return to providers having to consider the cost implications to their patients would be a good thing.
("Return" I know a 95 year old doctor who said he still carries some guilt from keeping a poor guy in the hospital an extra night back in 1955 days because he couldn't get some blood tests done quickly enough. $5. "We only need medical insurance because we have medical insurance" ain't too far wrong)
I think an 11% decrease is conservative if anything. None of our peer nations spend more than ~5% on administration as a share of overall healthcare spending.
> Your interaction with the health insurer, on the other hand, feels like a struggle against an enemy who wants to destroy you.
Exactly, the big factor driving healthcare costs is that people like expensive providers. They like the fancy plan that covers their doctor, that doesn't limit them to a community hospital. Any choice that involves retaining even the slightest market leverage is a deal breaker for many people. I think all the clever stuff we do to optimize costs and increase transparency is worth doing and helpful, but like, it will still be expensive. We want that!
Meanwhile it is not really better to go to an expensive doctor, in terms of health outcomes. So the public health problem is to stop people (and employers) from voluntarily wasting their money on healthcare, so we can use it for better stuff.
The fancy plan.
I will say this: profit margin % is not the yardstick by which we should measure whether insurance companies are responsible for high health care costs in the US.
Any good hacker is familiar with Amdahl's Law, and the same principle applies here. You can optimize the insurance providers all you want and maybe recover about 1/6 the total cost of care. At the very least, the first place we should be looking is the biggest expense, which is also clearly not the insurance.
Imagine if car engine oil changes had to go through car insurance. In such an inefficient equilibrium you might remark that only that insurer overhead is only 20% of a $300 oil change. Sellers always capture easy money that flows in from insurance money, credit, or government subsidies.
The fewer layers between a buyer and the seller, the lower the cost. Compare buying a bottle of ibuprofen at $5 for 200 doses compared with going to an urgent care and having a registered nurse hand you five doses at $200. Professional labor often used in medical care is expensive. Legalizing over the counter medication like birth control helps. Ironically a lot of poorly run companies try to shift HR policing of employees onto the healthcare system by requiring doctor’s notes. An insurance company processing claims is expensive.
Fee for service encourages more work ups and surgeries. The US caps physician residencies at a low count. Having the operations and financing as separate and adversarial companies adds a lot of friction. Hospitals charge 10x and the insurance brags they negotiated a 90% discount. No one health insurer has enough market power to push down outpatient, inpatient, or drug pricing. Without strong competition, automation, and price signals, healthcare spending is not going to get under control.
The problem is that people knee-jerk blame the one who they are giving money to. People think the teams are "Me and doctor vs. greedy insurance" whereas the reality of the situation is much more "Me and insurance vs greedy doctor".
OTOH, this is a world where many people get yelling-and-cursing angry with a bottom-tier Post Office clerk in (say) Podunk, Montana over the latest increase in the price of 1st Class postage stamps. When that decision was made by a bunch of executives in Washington DC. Whose names the clerk doesn't even know.