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5-6 years is wildly optimistic for GPUs in an AI data center

Try 1-2: https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/gpus/datacenter-g...

Sure, according to an unnamed "GenAI principal at Alphabet" of whom "We could not verify the name of the person who describes themselves as 'GenAI principal architect at Alphabet' and therefore we cannot 100% trust their claims."

But let's run with Deep Layer(tm)'s hot take from 2024, GPUs all die in 2 years, no exceptions*. Poor guy just spent $400,000 on a DGX with 8 B200s, each of those B200s generates a piddly ~$3,000 in profit monthly spewing tokens, netting $576K in 2 years, that's a pathetic 20% annual return. Oh no... Won't someone call Michael Burry!

*Never mind the 3-year warranty or any extended service contract, that GPU is D E D and you're S O L.

You gotta include 50k+ in power plus other expenses. Still looks like an ok return on capital, but you are betting heavily that cost of computing doesn’t fall much.

If token prices fall a bunch then it may not even be worth leaving on, depending on your facility’s relative power, cooling costs.

If we push far into oversupply eventually a bunch of firms building this infrastructure are going to lose out.

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