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Comment by chakintosh | Hacker News Reader

I have a feeling that as soon as OpenAI and Anthropic stocks are up for grabs, the market will implode.

Maybe lay down some concrete numbers and timelines, hold yourself accountable, otherwise you risk confirmation bias with your predictions like millions before you.

"Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."

He said "as soon as", so it's a pretty testable prediction.

"implode" is not testable. A good prediction is specific, time bound, measurable, etc. Otherwise you can flatter yourself however you like with confirmation bias. This is basic stuff.

> the market

Which market? The stock market? Or the tech stocks? Or something else?

Then someone says the market; they definitely mean the stock market. I don't know what else you can understand from it.

Why would the entire market implode?

Because in 2008, the housing bubble popped and it dragged with it the entire stock market. Stocks are more interdependent than most people realize.

Because tech is 1/3 of the US stock market?

> Which market? The stock market? Or the tech stocks?

Both.

Across the entire stock market, not a ton of bright spots _except_ for Tech.

Take a look here: https://finviz.com/map?t=sec_all&st=w52

Same. Glad I'm not alone.

So are you short the market?

crashes aren't shortable unless you know exactly when they are going to happen

Which is great because the parent comment provides a precise timeline.

The root comment of this thread does purport to know when that will happen (well, pending public announcement of those two IPO dates).

I think that might not even happen depending on how SpaceX IPO goes.

implode as in? to the moon or crash into bits and pieces?

Implode generally implies shrinking/collapsing, so while explode is kinda ambiguous, I think this is fairly clearly saying "bubble will pop".

yep, same here.

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