This is the real reason. I don't think equity market has enough capital to support three companies of this size.
I’m not clear how much crossover demand there is between SX and Anthropic/oAI — that seems like the more interesting question. I’m guessing if we had Anthropic/oAI launching at the same time we’d see some pretty interesting capital dynamics.
Don't we have exactly that? There are S-1 announcements for SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI. Google is selling to raise money for infra (IIRC). There's an absurd amount of money flowing in at present (prospectively at least).
None of the companies needs an IPO right now, with the possible exception of oAI — I haven’t looked at their financials recently. But SX is cashflow positive as of today, and Anthropic is able to become so without giving up much on their R&D program. So for those two, it’s a matter of timing.
Like a video game release schedule or a film release, SX has carved out a window and is going first, and regardless of messaging, all the teams are going to be watching it VERY VERY carefully. If it goes well, I’d expect Anthropic to jump next.
If that goes well, oAI would likely go right after. If it goes mid, oAI may wait to improve their financial story or fundraise private at worse valuations for a while, or, or, or.
Agreed that the dream for the next guys down the road is to pick up some recycled capital gains from sx and of course some new capital. If SX is a flop, then these IPO dreams will slow down for a minute.
Its Schrodinger's IPO: the space business is so successful how could you question the company's worth? You can't afford to miss out on the next biggest AI business to invest in!
What's going to happen is the music will stop and it's just a question of who cashed in when it does. OpenAI are easily the most vulnerable here.
The media and market is hyping these three companies up to be all trillion dollar companies.
So the markets only "need to absorb" $75B when SpaceX IPOs, not its whole $1.7T valuation. At least until the lockup period expires.
I think it will still be a bit tight with Anthropic and OpenAI IPO'ing at similar times however.