As I understand it, VTI will be a major thing.
Still, they're float adjusted (for the most part?).
Depends what you mean by successful. If you mean "the IPO goes ahead" then I don't think this makes a difference (unless Elon cracks the shits at this decision and pulls out, which I'm not sure is an option).
If "successful" equates to number-go-up, then my understanding is that Fast Index Entry would have resulted in, effectively, forced purchase of shares by various funds.
When Fast Index Entry (FIE) was a chance of being introduced, the odds of number go up were higher. Now that FIE has been ruled out, there's a lower chance of number go up because there's no "forced blind purchase" group.
Now that they have to wait a year for that point, that cash burn is going to work against them fairly heavily. There is also something like $20 billion of debt they have to pay back in the next 12 months that might not be covered over so easily now.
That said, SpaceX and a lot of Elons companies have had figures that look terrible for ages, and yet they keep manage to pull rabbits out of the hat. So who knows. Maybe they sell a bunch of assets, they have more than enough to cover the gap.
I can't imagine many people seriously believe SpaceX is a business worth 1.75T.
Besides the Chinese are launching their own network which will mean a price war. And the Chinese tend to win those.
I still agree that the company is disastrously overvalued. Even if we consider Starlink to be just as valuable as a telecom like Verizon, that’s only a $190 billion dollar company.
Starling is indeed very good, but it alone doesn't get spacex to 1.75T
This is a misrepresentation of the rule change. The proposed S&P500 rule change was to decrease S&P inclusion time from 12 months to 6 months, not to 15 days.