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There's a lot of opportunity cost to waiting 14 months to build something.

I agree, outside of the AI bubble, there's a lot of wait-and-see happening in the B2B world right now, I'd say we're currently 6-8 months into that 14 months.

It also presupposes that open models will bridge that gap towards opus4.5, which was really when I drank the AI coding koolaid

Nearly no one is doing anything that is “only possible with AI”. This doesn’t seem like a relevant calculation. People spend on AI as an investment in their current productivity.