SpaceX's IPO is a disaster waiting to happen for your pension fund

A lot of founders are the cause of enshittification. In fact, most of the big names I can think of are.

> And I can assure you building rockets isn't rocket science.

Is this parody?

> Other companies will follow propped up by their governments.

It's cool to say but it hasn't happened. And rockets literally are, well, rocket science.

>I can assure you building rockets isn't rocket science.

This is mind bogglingly wrong.

“[Rocket Science] looks hard and is harder than it looks” is the classic line. Anyone in the industry will tell you how extremely difficult rockets are.

Look at Blue Origin, all the money in the world and it still blows up on the pad. Look at ULA, largest aerospace companies in the world with institutional aerospace talent, backed by nearly unlimited government funding and is nowhere near a reusable rocket, decades behind SpaceX.

You are letting politics blind you to reality.

This is like a pea buried under 7 mattresses of delusion. If you dont like Musk, fine, but cmon man.

Only if the world doesn't regard the owner of said telecoms service as a political security risk. Tricky sell given increasing distrust of globalisation and the new trend of sovreign-shoring.

Source of that valuation? As doubt its true

People in less wealthy countries will pay a cheaper sum than wealthier countries.

Also China is accelerating its own equivalent

Bullshit

Genuinely curious about the math behind this. https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/754891 this index represents a decent chunk of the worldwide telecommunication industry. It's only worth $1.45T in total. They roll trucks and dig trenches to provide internet service - and provide other telecom services besides. My gut tells me that's cheaper than launching rockets. And these companies already provide service to most of the humans that have money.

I think SpaceX has done brilliantly in lowering the cost of rocket launches. I still don't understand or believe in the valuation.

Really because the entire world's economy is only about 120Tn. One internet provider is about 5% of that?

Me selling lemonade at the end of my driveway is about 300-800 million dollar business. That's just one thing I sell at the end of my driveway.

250k people in my city x $4/lemonade x 365 days per year

BS check: $8T is $1000 per person on this planet. A healthy P/E ratio of 25 would translate to earning $40/year in profit from every person on the planet. SpaceX/Starlink obviously doesn’t just walk in and get everyone as a customer though. They have roughly 10 million customers right now. Let’s be generous and say they have 20 million. That $8T works out at $400K per customer valuation which at a 50 P/E would mean $8K/year/customer profit per customer or $666/month/customer profit. Those are generous numbers. Scaling back to 10 million customers and 25 P/E would require $2666/month/customer in profit to get to $8T valuation. For Internet service?

not everyone responds to a perceived social ill by thinking "maybe I should gamble"

I'm sorry, I shouldn't do shit to avoid fraud. The government should enforce fraudulent behavior.

But no, we're in the grift economy where I'm suppose to hedge my bets about how big a fraud is and when someone will wake up naked in a pit of aligators.

Good luck with that.

You're ignoring the fact that timing has a lot to do with a short position. There was a long period where shorting Enron would've ruined you, and a short period when it'd make you rich.