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Comment by RoddaWallPro | Hacker News Reader

I want to buy options against QQQ so badly -- but Tesla has traded at a crazy multiple of revenue/profits for a very long time, so I'm wondering if Elon/AI hype will keep these stocks high longer than I want to pay the risk premium for (options).

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The SpaceX IPO has a tiny 5% float and only a $75 billion raise target. There are enough morons in the world that they will compete to buy and push the valuation up. It's all a stupid financial trick to make Elon a paper trillionaire.

They raise just enough money to pay back the loans that came with Twitter acquisition it still carries.

Scuttlebutt I've heard is that the revenue mechanism of the whole complex is essentially a gigantic depreciation machine. Starlink sats de-orbiting all by themselves get considered "depreciation". That one mechanism basically gives you a Saturn V sized firehose of tax holidays, because satellites aren't cheap, yo, and you can make all sorts of deals to essentially spread that around.

Is it true? I got no idea.

Supposedly, Tesla had some unique money games that vastly blew up their cash flow early on, less a car company and more a sort of tax arbitrage. So maybe it's in character.

Tesla is a meme stock like GameStop, but for a good fraction of America, so the market cap can be much larger. As long as TSLA owners don't care about the stock defying gravity, it will continue to do so.

Why short QQQ when SpaceX will only be 2% (according to a poster above), when many of the other companies in the index are tech and chip companies, such as NVDA, which are going gang-busters? Even if SpaceX went bankrupt you'd only see a 2% drop, which is easily covered by all the AI chip companies going up. If you think SpaceX is overvalued, buy options against it directly.

Missing context from my comment: I think the triple IPOs of SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, are going to be the thing that pops the AI bubble. They IPO for X, the stocks fall by some large double-digit percentage on future news (some model training didnt go well, or maybe China releases another DeepSeek model that tanks Nvidia stock like prior, etc), and the whole tech industry public market goes south. And since, from what I understand, most of the gains in the last few years on the stock market have been driven by AI-inflated valuations on a few large players, that crashes the whole market, and then we're _really_ in pain.

I don't know if this is realistic. But I look at these numbers and its like something does not add up here. The numbers are _way_ too high. As Altman said, "someone is going to lose a phenomenal amount of money". I don't want to bet on a specific player, because I don't know who, but I want to bet in general that someone is going to lose their shirt.

I'm with you on this. I think the market bubble can stay alive and well a lot longer than you can survive an open short position.

I think we're still a ways away from CEOs admitting that AI actually can't cut the cost of human capital in half.

> I think we're still a ways away from CEOs admitting that AI actually can't cut the cost of human capital in half

On the contrary, I think it certainly can. In the sense that productivity per person can be doubled. You could fire half your workforce and do nearly the same output.

Trouble is, everyone who does that will get outcompeted by everyone who didn't fore their workforce, and instead doubled their output.

We've seen it before with factories and computerization.

> can stay alive and well a lot longer than you can survive an open short position.

I mean let's look at bitcoin/crypto.

The market can stay irrational for longer than you can stay solvent.

What's that old saw the investors use? The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent? You can bet on the fundamentals or you can bet on other investors.

The fact that Tesla's stock price is so evidently detached from the performance of the company itself makes me wonder whether or not a public SpaceX will cause those investors who are just trying to ride the Musk train to exit Tesla stock and dump everything they can into SpaceX instead.

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