1) I would expect anyone close to retirement to have a fairly balanced portfolio.
2) if they don't include SpaceX and the stock does >10x in the next year, they'll end up doing terribly on the benchmarks. SpaceX is big, but if they invest early, it won't be a ridiculous % of the portfolio. Even if one overpays by 2x, since it's under .1% of the total portfolio. If it went to zero nobody would lose their shirts, they'd lose <.1% of their portfolio.
Seems worth at least 100x, and it doesn't seem surprising that it gets an extra 10x
Space TAM is not so large. Starlink ARPU is decreasing fast as well. And they rent the data center because Grok doesn't have enough usage, overall it's a bad usage of capital.
This is a confused take
Revenue is an excellent basis for comparison of valuations if the growth rates are similar. Nvidia is worth what it is because of its vertical growth rate
If company A makes a 100U this year and I think it's going to double by the end of the year (to 200U) I would rather hold shares of that than company B which makes 150U per year and it's growing 10% yoy.
Next year I'll have a company making 200U, whereas B will only be making 165U. So I would pay more for A today than I would for B.
As an aside, Apple and Google sum to more revenue than Walmart and have better growth. So your claim was correct five years ago and the growth rates have literally shown you why Apple and Google have higher market caps
I haven't even gotten to explain the space TAM, but suffice to say black car tam was small before Uber. (What % of black car cabs did Uber provide in their first year offering the service)
Growth is important, but only if you can keep a high margin on the products you sell : it's not the case with Starlink (the main profitable activity), ARPU is down 23% yoy, at 66$ in 2026. Compare it to 99$ in 2023.
Last point, growth in market caps have diminishing returns, and it's obvious that it's easier to do a x100 if you start from 1b than 1750b. SpaceX runs the classic strategy of "high MC, low float" that has ruined many altcoins in crypto for the benefit of insiders who will want to sell to realize their gains.
Like, yes, Google has 55% margins to Walmart's 24% (and the operating margin gap is similar), but Google is also growing 17% to Walmart's 5%.
Google will _gladly_ take a hit to their margins as they emphasize Cloud revenue because that unlocks growth
SpaceX is leaving enough float, it doesn't matter, indexes are float adjusted anyways, I hate that I have to defend them against bad takes