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Comment by WinstonSmith84 | Hacker News Reader

> If you bet against the hype and it goes on for a few more months/years you lose as much or more than if you went along for the ride.

> Burry is well aware of this ...

Well, no he isn't well aware of this, apparently. He's been right in 2008 but he has been spectacularly wrong for the last 5 to 10 years, like shorting Tesla or Nvidia at the worst possible moments - and eventually closing his hedge fund...

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> shorting Tesla or Nvidia at the worst possible moments - and eventually closing his hedge fund...

He just didn't take to heart that the market can stay irrational for longer then he could stay solvent.

Both Tesla and Nvidia valuations are irrational from a market perspective. Doesn't mean they'll crash within the next months or even years, but it wouldn't be surprising if they did

> Both Tesla and Nvidia valuations are irrational from a market perspective.

Different levels though. NVDA P/E is 31 which is slightly high but not crazy. The AI datacenter investments might dry up and then earnings drop, but who knows. So it's defensible, at least.

TSLA is in another universe though, P/E of ~360!

I am convinced spacex will acquire TSLA just to avoid seeing it crash.

Sure, no one can predict the future. But even then, Tesla's fundamentals are shaky and it is held by Musk's ability to sell his story and brand, only some fundamentals hold- albeit the same 'fans' buying its cars might be invested in its stock. Same thing might be happening with Nvidia- hyperscalers heavily investing in infrastructure and pushing AI adoption to justify ROI.

He didn't realized that speculating stocks allowed by Fed and both parties. The vast majority money needed to prop up American economy right now (or in the last 10 years) have nothing to do with econ 101. It is purely money printing at its finest making Japanese banana money and Germans look amateurish. Fed now basically print money to bank and directed bank to buy stocks and loans as they like to certain orgs and individuals. Any short selling or whistleblowers suicided.

Outlandish claims require substantial citations.

He was wrong about the timing of the bubble popping and might well still be too early, as passive investing might allow for the market to keep inflating for many years to come. Mike Green explaining it better, about how mathematically, there is an inflexion point where if x% of investment is passive, it could make the whole system unstable (I don't remember the specific number) and crash, but until then, it will keep rising.

"As long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance."

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