> The stock market doesn't operate on long-term principles anymore.
It has been broken since ~2008 (ZIRPs, etc.) and has really gone off the rails since BTC and memestocks have taken off. Now everything's a memestock. It's all vibes-based.
It has been broken since ~2008 (ZIRPs, etc.) and has really gone off the rails since BTC and memestocks have taken off. Now everything's a memestock. It's all vibes-based.
There are no fundamentals.
There is very low signal to the noise.
Isn’t this the exact same sentiment from the late 1920s when people were making “insane, life changing” money by buying equities on margin?
It may well though, because now we have an automatic buy from the government to 'fix' the market if it 'breaks'. The line goes up.
Humans are prisoners of the present moment, but just think what a market is. What does it really mean as it accumulates disorder for decade plus.
Can the market just continue to deviate from a markets actual purpose forever? Hell, can anything in this universe exist in a particular state forever.
If it can’t, then it means at some point things have to go in the other direction. Use your imagination what that means for the largest most complex (man made) system in the history of this planet.
The cynical nihilists have capitulated to the stock market always going up, that has to be flashing a very bearish warning sign.
I wouldn't advocate for betting against any of this. But I took my money out of the stock market a few months ago.
Shorting is too risky and depends a lot on timing. Staying clear of this mess is a safer bet.
To make a parallel, it's not like disinformation didn't exist in the past, but nowadays with social media, llms and image gen tools and a few armies of bots, you can spread whatever bullshit you want at lightning speed.
- ZIRP and similar policies essentially forced everybody to get into the stock market if they wanted to tread water.
- Then people saw with BTC (and similar, e.g. ETH,) that these so-called "market investments" don't need to be rooted in any kind of fundamental. They can be weightless tokens. This, in short order, lead to silly things like memestocks and NFTs -- but they also twisted the hell out of the markets. The valuation of TSLA has long been an example of this.
Then there's inflation, which has inflated stock market prices as much as it has inflated anything else. And there are toothless regulators who would deserve our sympathy if they weren't so lackadaisical. There are also llms, social media, etc. -- but those feed on the above.